WWE Royal Rumble preview & predictions: The next chapters of multiple stories

  • Ian Carey
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One of the most anticipated events of the year takes place tonight in Tampa with the WWE Royal Rumble.

Stories don’t finish at the Rumble, but key chapters are written. It’s like WWE’s version of a conference championship game if those games also had Elimination Chambers the following month. 

Several potential winners of the men’s Rumble match have been built up on WWE programming of late, some with more realistic chances than others.

Drew McIntyre, CM Punk, Cody Rhodes, and now Gunther have all cut promos in recent weeks stating, more or less, that they need to win the Rumble to finish their story at WrestleMania. Not surprisingly, the betting world has those four listed as the top favorites.

Conversely, the field of possible Rumble winners in the women’s match appears smaller. Becky Lynch’s chances of winning increased after she and Rhea Ripley had an excellent promo segment recently on Raw, setting up a possible Mania match between the two. That segment did well in the ratings as you might expect considering the star power of both. It’s a fresh matchup as well with the only non-house show singles match between them having taken place in NXT in 2019.

Bayley is the top favorite to win from the SmackDown roster, promising to win on behalf of Damage CTRL with the tease being she could then challenge teammate IYO SKY and pay off all the dissension that has been building within the faction for months.

An in-ring WWE debut for Jade Cargill could easily take place tonight as well. How she factors into a title picture is unclear, however. It feels like Cargill vs. Charlotte Flair could have been the plan if not for Flair’s injury.

As for the rest of the card, the results aren’t really in doubt. Roman Reigns will retain his undisputed Universal title, likely getting the pin on AJ Styles in the four-way match while United States Champion Logan Paul is a pretty strong favorite to beat Kevin Owens.

With all that, let’s get into predictions, betting odds, and analysis for the WWE Royal Rumble (8 PM EST Peacock/WWE Network):

Men’s Royal Rumble match

As of this writing, here are the betting favorites to win:

  • CM Punk +125
  • Gunther +180
  • Cody Rhodes +250
  • Drew McIntyre +1000
  • The Rock +1000
  • Jey Uso +1400
  • Sami Zayn +1800
  • MJF +2500

I’m not sure Gunther would benefit much from winning the Rumble as he doesn’t need a Rumble win to solidify himself as a top contender for a World title. He’s already got his record-setting run with the Intercontinental Championship for that and will have a big match at WrestleMania regardless of what happens.

The Rock also does not need to win the Rumble to justify booking him in a World title match at WrestleMania. He’s The Rock. He can always be put in that position.

Lesnar’s odds of winning the Rumble this year sit at +5000. However, his possible presence at the event this year could be a distraction. It would remind fans of the disturbing allegations against Vince McMahon that included Lesnar, and that is likely not what anyone wants right now.

Punk winning the Rumble and facing Seth Rollins for the World Heavyweight Championship at WrestleMania is a possible outcome. I just don’t think it’s the most likely. Punk doesn’t need a Rumble win to face Rollins as fans are going to want to see that match regardless. WWE can take another route to get there.

The most likely WWE wrestler to win the Rumble 2024, in my opinion, is Rhodes. If Rhodes is put in a World title match and given a chance to finish his story at WrestleMania, it will feel like he cut corners if he doesn’t win the Rumble en route to doing so.

It’s been very clear in his promos of late that finishing his story means winning the Rumble to earn a spot in the final chapter. Any other path to that match will feel tainted and unearned.

If Rhodes doesn’t win the Rumble, he won’t face Reigns at Mania this year. Perhaps he will wrestle Drew McIntyre or maybe he’ll move into the program with Punk and Rollins, but he won’t face Reigns.

Despite The Rock’s return, I still feel pretty confident that Rhodes is WWE’s top babyface and the plan must be/should be/probably is for him to eventually defeat Reigns and finish his story. That’s why I think he’s the favorite to win the Rumble.

Prediction: Cody Rhodes

Women’s Royal Rumble Match

As of this writing, here are the betting favorites to win:

  • Bayley +100
  • Becky Lynch +200
  • Jade Cargill +500
  • Nia Jax +800
  • Raquel Rodriguez +900
  • Bianca Belair +1000
  • Mercedes Mone/Sasha Banks +1200
  • Liv Morgan +1400
  • Asuka +1600
  • Shayna Baszler +2500

The women’s Rumble match feels harder to predict than the men’s. This uncertainty might be a result of the recent injury to Flair. One thing any WWE fan knows is that Flair is always factored into the Women’s World title plans, be it Mania season or not. Her being out of the mix has no doubt caused them to deviate from plans.

One match a lot of fans are speculating will happen at WrestleMania 40 is a newly babyface Bayley vs. IYO SKY, thus Bayley being considered the betting favorite. It’s a possible outcome, but I don’t know if it’s the most likely.

Belair being a +1000 underdog is interesting to me. If betting on wrestling were recommended (for obvious reasons, it is not), I would put a little money on her. She’s a face of the division and one of the biggest babyfaces in the company. I imagine Belair is factored into a major match at WrestleMania and her winning the Rumble is a good way to get there. Those are pretty long odds they have given her, though.

The most likely wrestler to win the Rumble is Lynch. I doubt that big rating for the aforementioned Lynch/Ripley segment went unnoticed. That match for WrestleMania seems like a foregone conclusion and her winning the Rumble to get there could be the perfect setup. While it’s not her only route, I still think she’s the favorite.

Prediction: Becky Lynch

WWE United States Champion Logan Paul (-2000 favorite) defends against Kevin Owens

There is very little chance that Owens will defeat Paul on Saturday. Paul is a huge star and brings eyeballs to the company while Owens is a star that can lose big matches and not be hurt in the least. The result is not really in question, but I imagine these two will want to take a fun route to the forgone conclusion.

Prediction: Logan Paul retains

WWE Universal Champion Roman Reigns defends against LA Knight, Randy Orton and AJ Styles in a four-way

Roman Reigns is listed as a -3000 favorite to retain.

This feels like the least important Reigns match in years, but might be out of necessity more than anything. In contrast from WrestleMania 38 to 39, Reigns’ title run since beating Rhodes at Mania has felt untouchable as though fans realize he won’t be dropping the belt until at least WrestleMania 40. A year ago, McIntyre, Sami Zayn, and Rhodes all appeared to have legitimate chances to take the title off him.

Fans know he is going into the biggest weekend of the year as champion and WWE knows that fans know Reigns is going into that weekend as champion. A story will be told in this match, but the result is not really in doubt.

Prediction: Roman Reigns retains