WWE Backlash predictions: Historical odds, predictable outcomes, Dominik’s mustache
Tonight’s WWE Backlash in St. Louis, Missouri, (Peacock in the U.S. & Netflix outside the U.S.) will be a highly predictable event with some of the longest odds in wrestling history, according to the oddsmakers.
Unsurprisingly, one of the heavy favorites is WWE Champion John Cena who has been given a 98% chance of retaining against Randy Orton. The other two percent is likely if Cena gets injured mid-match and they have to call an audible. I don’t think too many people believe WWE’s plan was for Cena to beat Rhodes and then lose it in his first defense, still many months away from his final appearance.
But the show is all built around the match, the second-ever last-ever bout between the two, and having it take place in Orton’s hometown.
Cena is not the only heavy favorite at Backlash, however. New United States Champion Jacob Fatu has also been given a 98% chance of retaining his title on Saturday in a fatal four-way match against LA Knight, Drew McIntyre, and Damian Priest. Fatu will likely win, but I don’t know how Las Vegas has decided him not retaining would be amongst the biggest upsets in wrestling history.
Becky Lynch, Dominik Mysterio, and Gunther are all big favorites as well. Below are previews and predictions for each match at WWE Backlash 2025.
WWE Champion John Cena defends against Randy Orton
Cena heads into this one as a whopping -5000 favorite — often the unofficial cap for wrestling odds, although not always.
To put this into perspective, Mike Tyson went into his fight with James “Buster” Douglas a -4200 favorite, and Ronda Rousey went into her fight with Holly Holm a -2000 favorite. So if Cena does tear a muscle mid-match, this will be among the biggest upset in combat sports history, only not really because it’s wrestling, but you get my point.
The only wrestling matches I can find that ever went over -5000 odds were some of the Undertaker’s WrestleMania matches during the streak and Rousey’s debut tag match at WrestleMania 34. A famous example of why betting on wrestling is not advised took place in 2014 when a man in the UK bet his life savings on the Undertaker to beat Brock Lesnar and lost £35,000.
Of course, everyone’s confidence in Cena comes from his storyline requiring him to retain the title until just before he’s about to retire. Each chapter of the story is going to end the same way, but it won’t necessarily take the same journey to get there. The story Cena and Orton tell in the match should be interesting with Orton as the babyface and Cena the heel, leading to a unique version of a match we’ve seen a billion times before.
I also wouldn’t be surprised if an angle is tacked onto the end to build to Cena’s next defense, although they might save that for TV.
Prediction: Cena retains
WWE Women’s Intercontinental Champion Lyra Valkyria defends against Becky Lynch
Lynch is currently listed as a -400 favorite to defeat Valkyria which I think is a pretty safe bet.
Valkyria defeated Lynch the last time they had a singles match which was for the NXT title at Halloween Havoc 2023. So, Lynch winning is the more likely move to keep the story moving forward with Valkyria winning it back in the eventual blowoff match.
Evidently, it was Lynch’s decision to turn heel, probably because she wants to work against a babyface Valkyria. It was also her decision to turn heel immediately after returning in 2021 for her run as “Big Time Becks.” Why does Lynch want to be a bad guy so much? Lynch wants to be a heel and Charlotte Flair wants to be a babyface, but it’s going to be a tall order to sell the fans on either of those.
Lynch will use dirty, underhanded tactics to defeat Valkyria and become the new Women’s Intercontinental Champion.
Prediction: Lynch wins the Intercontinental title
WWE United States Champion Jacob Fatu defends against LA Knight, Drew McIntyre and Damian Priest in a four-way match
There are a bunch of reasons why Fatu is most likely going to retain the title at Backlash and is a heavy favorite to do so:
- Gigantic rising star
- Everybody likes him
- Just won the title at WrestleMania 41
- Everyone else in the match has issues with each other
- Winning the title doesn’t really do much for Priest, McIntyre or Knight at this point
- He’s a werewolf
I just can’t get behind him being -5000 in a four-way match though. To the best of what I can find, there has never been this heavy of a favorite in a multi-person match.
Maybe something happens between him and Solo Sikoa that leads to him not retaining. Who knows?
If you said Fatu was a -2000 favorite, that would make sense. That’s still considered “a lock” for him to win. But saying that him not winning this match would be one of the largest upsets in wrestling history up there with Lesnar defeating Undertaker at WrestleMania 30 seems a little bizarre.
Even if I received an email from Triple H that said, “Off the record: Jacob Fatu is winning at Backlash. If this information is incorrect, I will agree to speak positively about AEW for a year,” I still wouldn’t put Fatu as a -5000 favorite. Maybe like -3000 if I got that email, but no more than that.
Anyway, after all that, I’m still picking Fatu to win and retain.
Prediction: Fatu retains in what was, according to oddsmakers, one of the most predictable outcomes in wrestling history
Gunther vs. Pat McAfee
There is no reason for this to be anything other than a squash match.
Gunther is a -1000 favorite and the most likely reason for this bout happening is that it’s a chance for the company to rehab him after he lost clean to Jey Uso at WrestleMania 41. There’s also the possibility that Gunther continues his attack after the bell which could set up his next rivalry, possibly with Goldberg, depending on whether he’s cleared.
McAfee will get in a little bit of offense, and some hope spots, but will walk away with a heavily chopped chest in defeat and then maybe take a vacation so Corey Graves can come back to Raw.
Prediction: Gunther
WWE Intercontinental Champion Dominik Mysterio defends against Penta
Dominik is listed as a -900 favorite to defeat Penta at Backlash.
He’s likely a heavy favorite because he just won the title and fans like him, or at least enjoy not liking him. His title win at WrestleMania felt almost like a thank you from WWE to him. Almost a “Hey, Rhea Ripley and Liv Morgan are bigger stars now than they were before they worked with you” kind of acknowledgment.
WWE doesn’t hesitate to beat Penta even though it appears they have him slotted as a star in the making. But, I’m going to go against the grain on this one and pick the underdog to score a huge upset. Admittedly, I’m partly doing this because I feel obligated to pick at least one underdog per show. Well, this is the one I’m picking.
I think Penta wins fairly clean, but I also think Finn Balor does something accidentally to cost his Judgment Day stablemate the title.
Prediction: Penta wins the title
Our live coverage kicks off at 5 PM Eastern with the pre-show with the main card kicking off at 7 PM Eastern.