UFC On FOX 16 preview: 5 storylines to watch, betting odds & predictions
By Ryan Frederick, WrestlingObserver.com
The UFC returns to the FOX Network on Saturday night for their annual summer event as the Octagon rolls back into the Windy City, Chicago, with a championship bout headlining the card and a title eliminator serving as the co-main event. It will be the fourth FOX event eminating from Chicago, and the first title fight on FOX since December 2013. The event kicks off with preliminary action on UFC Fight Pass at 4:15 PM eastern time. The action moves to FOX at 6 PM eastern time with more preliminary card action before the four-fight main card kicks off at 8 PM eastern time.
The long-awaited rematch for the UFC Bantamweight Championship headlines the event as champion T.J. Dillashaw makes his second title defense, this time finally defending against his rival and the man he defeated for the title, Renan Barao, who looks to regain the title he held for nearly two years. In the co-main event, it is a title eliminator in the women’s bantamweight division as former Strikeforce champion Miesha Tate takes on rising contender Jessica Eye. Also on the main card are two exciting lightweight match-ups as Edson Barboza takes on Paul Felder, and veterans Joe Lauzon and Takanori Gomi square off. Let’s dive deeper into the night’s action and look at five storylines to keep our eye on.
1. Can T.J. Dillashaw score a second win over Renan Barao and retain the UFC Bantamweight Championship?
When Renan Barao and T.J. Dillashaw were announced for the main event of UFC 173 in May 2014, many were expecting a win for Barao as he was entering the fight on a 33-fight unbeaten streak where he had absolutely dominated the competition, and he was a heavy betting favorite when they stepped into the Octagon in Las Vegas that night. A funny thing happened to Barao, though. As dominant as he had been over those 33 fights, on this Saturday night of Memorial Day Weekend, it was Dillashaw that did the dominating. Barao didn’t even look in the league of Dillashaw that night, and Dillashaw finished Barao in the fifth round to become the new UFC Bantamweight Championship.
Dillashaw and Barao have been on a collision course for a rematch ever since, and after two false starts, they will finally step inside the Octagon across from each other 14 months later. Both men have fought just once since then. Dillashaw scored a dominant win over Joe Soto at UFC 177 in August, a fight that Soto took on one day’s notice after Barao was forced out due to being rushed to the hospital during his weight cut. Barao submitted Mitch Gagnon in December, a fight he controlled, but he wasn’t as dominant as he had been in the past. Dillashaw and Barao were scheduled to meet at UFC 186 in April, but a rib injury forced Dillashaw out of the bout. With two pay-per-view headline fights between the two falling apart, they were put on a free television card, and both men look ready to make the walk on Saturday.
Things are different as we head into this Saturday night’s fight. Dillashaw is now the favorite, coming in as a two-to-one favorite. He has been splitting time between California and Colorado, training with his Team Alpha Male teammates, and also training under striking coach Duane Ludwig. He is Ludwig’s prized student and Ludwig was a big key in Dillashaw defeating Barao the first time. Barao looked lost when dealing with Dillashaw’s footwork, and if he looks the same way, it is hard to envision Barao winning the championship back. Barao is going to need to be explosive and counter the footwork of Dillashaw by using pressure. Dillashaw may just be too quick on his feet. Barao still has to cut a lot of weight to make 135 pounds, and it may drain him like it did the first time. This has the makings of another win by Dillashaw, but it is hard to count out Barao. A win by Barao undoubtedly sets up a trilogy bout, but a Dillashaw win sets him up for when Dominick Cruz returns.
2. Who wins the title eliminator between Miesha Tate and Jessica Eye?
The co-main event is a women’s bantamweight title eliminator between perennial contender Miesha Tate and rising contender Jessica Eye. Tate is a former Strikeforce Women’s Bantamweight Champion who has fought for the UFC Women’s Bantamweight Championship, losing to Ronda Rousey at UFC 168 in December 2013. She has since scored three straight decision wins over Liz Carmouche, Rin Nakai and Sara McMann, showing off a better arsenal of attacks. She wants to get back and get another crack at Rousey, who has beaten her twice, but Tate thinks a third time would be different.
Eye has fought three times in the Octagon, and while she only has one official win, she, the UFC brass and a lot of people see her as 3-0 in the UFC. She scored a win over Sarah Kaufman in her UFC debut, but that was turned into a no contest due to a failed drug test for marijuana, which has been repeatedly said to be due to second-hand smoke. She then dropped a split decision to Alexis Davis, but it was a fight many, myself included, scored for Eye. She is coming off the big win at UFC 180 in November when she scored a TKO win over Leslie Smith, literally punching Smith’s ear off in the process while landing 80 significant strikes in under seven minutes of action.
Tate carries the same attack and style into every fight, and she will be looking to go for the takedown. She has improved her striking, but she still tends to eat a lot of punches and walk through them, and Eye is one of the top strikers in the division, using excellent footwork and kickboxing skills, and she fights at a relentless pace. The conditioning edge clearly goes to Eye as well as the striking edge. Tate will be looking for takedowns and Eye will need to show improved defense and good ability to get off the ground if it goes there. Eye can hold her own on the ground, but Tate can be suffocating in top control. An x-factor in this fight is Tate is cornering her boyfriend, Bryan Caraway, in his fight earlier on the card. If Caraway loses, what kind of affect will it have on Tate, and will not relaxing when she should throw her off. This is a big battle for the next title shot, and I like Eye taking a decision in a tough battle.
3. Can Paul Felder remain undefeated against the tough Edson Barboza?
A big lightweight battle between Anthony Pettis and Myles Jury was originally scheduled for this card, but through a series of injuries, we ended up with an interesting lightweight contest between Edson Barboza and the undefeated Paul Felder on the main card of Saturday’s event. Barboza is coming off a tough loss to Michael Johnson in February, ending his two-fight win streak that had him on the verge of breaking into the top five of the division. Every time he gets on a roll, he has suffered a setback, and this is his chance to get back on a roll. Felder is undefeated in his ten fight career, scoring his last two wins in the UFC. He is coming off a spectacular spinning back fist finish of Danny Castillo at UFC 182 in January, and he gets a high-profile fight on the main card for the first time in his short UFC career.
Barboza is an excellent kickboxer with excellent speed and power on his feet, and he has had some dazzling finishes in his career. Felder is excellent at countering attacks and he will make his opponents pay for making mistakes. Felder has solid power, and he is good in the clinch and at defending takedowns. Barboza has trouble when he is pressured by his opponents, and Felder fights at a relentless pace and is good at applying pressure. Barboza does leave himself easy to hit, and if he can’t get the takedown, this fight will likely end up with Felder dominating on the feet. He still has to watch out for the speed and power from Barboza. Both men can score finishes out of nowhere. This is Felder’s chance to break into the rankings while Barboza tries to hang on to the future title challenger potential he has. This is a close fight on paper and in the betting odds. I like Felder to score a close decision.
4. Can Joe Lauzon score another bonus to add to his record?
Joe Lauzon is the UFC’s all-time leader in post-fight bonus awards, scoring thirteen over his career. He has been an Octagon staple since 2006, but he comes into Saturday night’s event having lost three of his previous five fights, and a win after being knocked out by Al Iaquinta would get him back on track. He faces Japanese legend and former PRIDE Champion Takanori Gomi, who certainly would like to get back on track as well after having dropped two of his last three, and he is also coming in off a knockout loss, at the hands of Myles Jury in September. Both men are in a kind of limbo as they have been around for a long time and they may never contend for titles these days as a new breed of fighters enter the UFC, but they are plenty capable of producing some fun fights.
Lauzon on offense is all about finding ways to finish the fight, whether on the feet or on the ground. Gomi was a knockout artist in his prime, but as he has lost the speed and some of the power on his feet, he has become a better technical striker. Lauzon has a chin that can be tested, and Gomi is still capable of landing a big right hand. Gomi still lacks some on the ground, and while he has great takedown defense, he gets in bad positions on the ground. Lauzon is excellent on the ground and will take advantage of any bad positions that he has Gomi in. He is excellent at sweeps and transitions, and has a full arsenal of submissions. Conditioning could be a key for both men, but a ground battle favors Lauzon. He is the bonus king for a reason, and he has a good chance at scoring another one on Saturday.
5. What is there to look out for on the preliminary card?
The night’s preliminary card is full of solid match-ups capped off by F4W’s very own “Filthy” Tom Lawlor making his return after being out of action for over two years, and moving back up to the light heavyweight division as he takes on Gian Villante, winner of two straight fights. It will be interesting if Lawlor’s wrestling and submission game can match up with the striking attack of Villante. Jim Miller and Danny Castillo meet in a lightweight bout as both look to end two-fight losing skids. Kenny Robertson puts his three-fight win streak on the line against Ben Saunders, who has won five of his last six. Eddie Wineland returns from a 15-month layoff to take on Bryan Caraway as both look to rebound from a loss. All of those fights air on FOX.
On the UFC Fight Pass portion of the card, there are four fights that could breed some solid action. Lightweights Daron Cruickshank and James Kruase look to rebound from some bad luck in recent Octagon appearances when they meet. Ramsey Nijem looks to rebound from a loss when he meets undefeated Octagon newcomer Andrew Holbrook, making his UFC debut as an injury replacement. Women’s bantamweights Jessamyn Duke and Elizabeth Phillips square off in what could be a loser leaves town bout as both have lost two straight. Opening the card is a welterweight bout between Zak Cummings and Dominique Steele, who is taking the fight on short notice as an injury replacement.
Full UFC On FOX 16 Fight Card, Betting Odds & Predictions
MAIN CARD (FOX-8 PM ET/5 PM PT)
UFC Bantamweight Championship: T.J. Dillashaw(c) vs. (#1) Renan Barao
Betting Odds: Dillashaw (-240), Barao (+200)
Prediction: Dillashaw by knockout in round 4
Women’s Bantamweights: (#2) Miesha Tate vs. (#5) Jessica Eye
Betting Odds: Tate (-200), Eye (+170)
Prediction: Eye by decision
Lightweights: (#7) Edson Barboza vs. Paul Felder
Betting Odds: Barboza (-135), Felder (+115)
Prediction: Felder by decision
Lightweights: Joe Lauzon vs. Takanori Gomi
Betting Odds: Lauzon (-350), Gomi (+290)
Prediction: Lauzon by submission in round 3
PRELIMINARY CARD (FOX-6 PM ET/3 PM PT)
Light Heavyweights: (#15) Gian Villante vs. Tom Lawlor
Betting Odds: Villante (-230), Lawlor (+190)
Prediction: Lawlor by decision
Lightweights: Jim Miller vs. Danny Castillo
Betting Odds: Miller (-130), Castillo (+110)
Prediction: Miller by decision
Welterweights: Kenny Robertson vs. Ben Saunders
Betting Odds: Robertson (-115), Saunders (-105)
Prediction: Saunders by submission in round 2
Bantamweights: (#6) Eddie Wineland vs. (#12) Bryan Caraway
Betting Odds: Wineland (-145), Caraway (+125)
Prediction: Wineland by decision
PRELIMINARY CARD (UFC FIGHT PASS- 4:15 PM ET/1:15 PM PT)
Lightweights: Daron Cruickshank vs. James Krause
Betting Odds: Cruickshank (-155), Krause (+135)
Prediction: Cruickshank by decision
Lightweights: Ramsey Nijem vs. Andrew Holbrook
Betting Odds: Nijem (-140), Holbrook (+120)
Prediction: Nijem by knockout in round 2
Women’s Bantamweights: Jessamyn Duke vs. Elizabeth Phillips
Betting Odds: Duke (+150), Phillips (-170)
Prediction: Duke by decision
Welterweights: Zak Cummings vs. Dominique Steele
Betting Odds: Cummings (-260), Steele (+220)
Prediction: Cummings by submission in round 2