UFC Fight Night 81 DFS Playbook: value picks, who to avoid

The Octagon makes its’ way back to Boston, Massachusetts for UFC Fight Night 81 on Sunday night, airing on FOX Sports 1. It is the second event of the month of January, and another opportunity for daily fantasy players to score some profit. Below are our studs, value plays, fighters to avoid and our advice for you in setting your line-ups.

STUDS

Charles Rosa ($10,800)

Charles Rosa might just be 1-2 in the UFC, but he has been impressive in all three bouts. His debut was a close loss to Dennis Siver in a short-notice bout. He came back to submit Sean Soriano before dropping a close split decision to Yair Rodriguez in June. Having been born in Massachusetts, Rosa is back fighting in front of a home crowd and looking to score an impressive win. He will fight Kyle Bochniak, who takes the fight on three days’ notice. That is a lot to ask of someone, much less a fighter who just fought last week. This is set up for Rosa to get a win, and props to Bochniak for stepping to keep Rosa on the card, but Rosa should be getting a finish here, and is our top play because of the circumstances surrounding the fight.

Rob Font ($10,600)

Rob Font is another local fighter on the card, having been born, living and training in Boston. He is a good prospect at 135 pounds with an 11-1 record and ten straight wins. He has been out of action for a long time, not having fought since scoring a first-round knockout of George Roop in his UFC debut in July 2014. That performance, though, showed what he is certainly capable of delivering inside the Octagon. He has well-rounded skills, and he fights an opponent making his UFC debut as an injury replacement in Joey Gomez. Gomez is 6-0 in his career but has yet to have the exposure of the big stage. Font’s striking should be enough to score a finish, and he is a good bet to score a lot of points on Sunday.

VALUE PLAYS

Matt Mitrione ($9,200)

Matt Mitrione looks to have something to prove as he heads into the last fight of his contract on Sunday night. That makes him a good contrarian pick for the event. He is fighting Travis Browne, who comes in as the favorite, but there are a lot of question marks surrounding Browne, especially how he comes back from his last loss and whether the distractions of dating Ronda Rousey get to him. Mitrione is good on his feet and quicker than Browne, but he does make mistakes that cost him fights. It is heavyweights and a finish is likely. Mitrione at his price makes him an interesting value.

Sean O’Connell ($8,500)

Sean O’Connell is a sneaky play at his $8,500 salary. He has won two straight fights by knockout, including a 56-second win in his last fight. He lost his first two UFC fights, but one was a short-notice bout and the other was a split decision. He scores a good amount of points in his fights, and 205-pound fighters have a lot of power. He faces a tough opponent in Ilir Latifi, who has won all three of his UFC fights by finish in the first round. He was also finished recently in the first round. If you are looking for a fighter with a low salary so you can play contrarian and spend up, O’Connell is of solid value.

AVOID

Francimar Barroso ($10,000)

Francimar Barroso is 2-1 in the UFC, but all three fights have gone the distance and he hasn’t been overly impressive. He is a grinder who doesn’t land a lot of strikes and leaves himself open for counters. He is fighting a short-notice opponent in Elvis Mutapcic, and Mutapcic is taking the fight in a higher weight class. Mutapcic is talented, though, and he has a very good chance of defeating Barroso. He also has a style that can beat Barroso. Short notice or not, I give Mutapcic a good chance of winning, therefore I am fading from Barroso.

Daron Cruickshank ($8,700)

Daron Cruickshank is an exciting lightweight fighter, but he has hit a real rough patch in recent UFC bouts. Eye pokes, rough weight cuts and tough competition has seen him win just once in his last five fights, and his back is against the wall. Also with his back against the wall is his opponent, Paul Felder. Felder is more talented of the two, and there will be a lot of strikes thrown. Felder has the better shot at finishing Cruickshank, and a distance fight favors Felder as well. I will be shying away from Cruickshank on my roster.

OUR LINEUPS:

RYAN FREDERICK: Charles Rosa ($10,800), Rob Font ($10,600), Travis Browne ($10,200), Dominick Cruz ($9,300), Francisco Trinaldo ($9,100)

I have Charles Rosa and Rob Font as my two big plays for this card. Both are local fighters who will be willed to win in front of the home fans, and both are fighting short-notice opponents. I like both winning by finish and getting maximum points. I have Travis Browne despite thinking Matt Mitrione is good value. Someone is getting finished in that bout, and Browne is too naturally talented to look as bad as he did against Andrei Arlovski. Dominick Cruz is my interesting play. I am picking T.J. Dillashaw to win, but I’m not confident on that. It is five rounds, which means ten more minutes to score points, and I think they are going the distance. Cruz is good value for his salary. My last pick is Francisco Trinaldo. He has won four straight, has good value, and fights a beatable Ross Pearson. He is a good contrarian pick.

PAUL FONTAINE: Ilir Latifi ($10,900), Rob Font ($10,600), Travis Browne ($10,200), Francisco Trinaldo ($9,100), Daron Cruickshank ($8,700)

Gotta be honest….I’m not really thrilled with my team this week. I went through and picked the probable winners and finishers and I just couldn’t work them all in under the cap so I had to make some tough choice. Browne is clearly a class above Matt Mitrione and as long as the out of the cage stuff he’s been dealing with aren’t too much of a distraction, he should finish Mitrione fairly quickly. Trinaldo is an often overlooked fighter who is a submission specialist and has won 4 in a row. Pearson is tough but he’s taken a lot of punishment and is due to start showing the effects of his age and the damage over the year. Cruickshank is the one I’m not terribly thrilled with having on my team but he’s got power and could score a KO at any point, although his opponent Paul Felder has never been finished. Latifi has first round finishes in each of his last 3 fights and I think he overpowers Sean O’Connell en route to another quick win. Font-Gomez could be a sleeper fight as both are finishers that usually get the job done quickly. Gomez is making his Octagon debut and could have some jitters so I look for that to be the difference here and Font should wipe that “0” from Gomez’ record. 

PEACH MACHINE: Anthony Pettis ($11,000), Paul Felder ($10,700), Ben Saunders ($9,800), Dominick Cruz ($9,300), Ed Herman ($8,900)

I think Cruz is too smart and too good to get beat by Dillashaw. All Dominick Cruz does is alternate between getting better and breaking his knee, and his knee is healthy. I like Pettis to rebound and smash Alvarez. I like Alvarez, but I think Pettis is too fast. I’m taking Herman because Boetsch is coming off a bad KO. So is Herman, but I think Boetsch is closer to being done than making a run. Saunders has a lot of reach here. Cote’s fighting age is much greater than 35. I like Saunders to get this to the ground and get the submission. Felder is a killer and has a tough out in Cruickshank, but Felder is tougher and younger and is looking to get back into that win column. I like my picks again this week. I went 4-1 in my DK picks last week, and 11-1 in my tapology picks. Good enough for number 2 over all in tapology. Am I bragging? Yes. Will I ever get another chance to brag at this level? Unlikely. Holtzman blew my perfect pick night. It’s my fault for believing in someone.