UFC Fight Night 76 DFS Playbook: value picks, who to avoid
UFC Fight Night 76 comes your way on Saturday afternoon here in the United States as the Octagon makes its’ third appearance in Dublin, Ireland. The event has undergone some late changes, losing the original main event and co-main event. We still have some interesting bouts and some chances to make money if you are playing daily fantasy this weekend on DraftKings. Let’s take some look at some studs, some values, and some fighters to avoid this weekend when setting your roster for UFC Fight Night 76.
STUDS
Stevie Ray ($11,000)
Stevie Ray has the highest salary of all the fighters competing on the UFC Fight Night 76 card, and for good reason. He has been impressive in his two bouts in the UFC, scoring knockout wins early in those bouts. He has averaged 101.5 DFS points in those two fights, and he is the biggest betting favorite on the card in his bout against Mickael Lebout. Ray has a lot of power in his fists, and some solid submission skills too if the fight hits the mat. Lebout has some submission skills as well, having won six fights that way, and Ray has lost four fights that way. Lebout is more of a point fighter, though, and Ray likes to get that finish. With his 14 stoppage wins and the power he displays, he is the best bet to score a big finish on this card.
Scott Askham ($9,700)
I like Scott Askham in his fight against Krzysztof Jotko. Askham scored a big finish over Antonio Carlos Junior in his last bout, and he is a tall middleweight. The best thing is he knows how to use his length to his advantage. He is a knockout artist, having won eight of his 13 fights by knockout, and finishes are where you are going to maximize your points. Askham also has underrated submission skills. Jotko has only lost once in his career, but he is not much of a finisher. His only loss also came by stoppage. Both men share the same salary, and it is a toss-up on the betting lines. However, I like Askham’s chances of scoring a win by stoppage, and I like him to win the fight in general.
VALUES
Darren Till ($9,300)
Darren Till is a young, undefeated prospect making his second appearance in the Octagon. At just 22-years-old, he is 13-0 with eleven wins by stoppage. He fights another undefeated fighter in Nicolas Dalby, who comes in with a 14-0 record. Till has a lot of knockout power and some brutal ground-and-pound, and he is still evolving. Dalby has likely peaked in his career, and he has good skills, but is not much of a finisher. Till is a solid value play because of his ability, his progression, and his power. I see him getting a stoppage win.
Robert Whiteford ($9,200)
Robert Whiteford fights the most experienced UFC veteran on the card in Darren Elkins. Whiteford has won his last two fights, showing off his solid judo skills. Elkins is a strong wrestlers so Whiteford will be needing to use those judo skills. He scored a big knockout win in his last fight, but Elkins is a tough fighter to finish. Elkins has struggled putting his wrestling and kickboxing together and that is where Whiteford is going to have to take advantage of. It could be tough for Whiteford to score points, but he has some solid value with his knockout power in his hands.
AVOID
Norman Parke ($10,800)
Norman Parke has the second-highest salary of all of the UFC Fight Night 76 participants. He has scored just one finish in his UFC career, and it was against a lesser fighter. He is fighting Reza Madadi, who despite coming off a 30-month layoff, is still a stout opponent who will be hard to finish. Parke is more of a points fighter and this fight will likely go the distance. With his high salary, I would stay away from Parke as I don’t see him getting enough points to get you high in the cash. I do expect him to win, though, so the risk is there if you choose to go that way.
Cathal Pendred ($8,800)
I can’t tell you to avoid Cathal Pendred enough. He just hasn’t shown the skills to be a finisher on a consistent basis in the UFC. He has won four of his five UFC bouts, but only one has been a finish, and the rest have been boring decisions, and some were controversial decisions. He is awkward in his strikes and he telegraphs his takedowns. He has been given a tough opponent in Tom Breese, one that could send Pendred right out of the UFC. Breese may actually finish Pendred, so his $10,600 salary could be enticing if you have room on your roster. However, stay away from Pendred at all costs.
OUR LINEUPS
RYAN FREDERICK- Stevie Ray ($11,000), Tom Breese ($10,600), Scott Askham ($9,700), Darren Till ($9,300), Robert Whiteford ($9,200)
Every one of the fighters I’m using have been listed in some form above. I like all of my roster to actually score finish wins. Ray has the knockout power and is facing a fighter he can finish quickly. Breese, I see him finishing Cathal Pendred, but that may be tough. Askham and Till have such solid power and they’re in fights that should be showcase bouts for them. Whiteford is the toughest one to predict since he has such a tough opponent in Darren Elkins. I think Elkins has almost peaked as a fighter and Whiteford is developing quite nicely.
PAUL FONTAINE- Stevie Ray ($11,000), Aisling Daly ($9,900), Paddy Holohan ($9,600), Darren Till ($9,300), Cathal Pendred ($8,800)
The crowd has been such a factor in previous shows in Dublin so I’m going with all fighters from that area. I like Aisling Daly who I believe it better than she’s shown herself to be in previous UFC fights. She has a long history of fighting the best at both 115 and 125 and she should grind out a decision win or perhaps a late submission. Paddy Holohan will be fighting the biggest fight of his life and I’m predicting his main event bout with Louis Smolka to be a potential fight of the year candidate. The crowd will will Paddy to a win. Cathal Pendred had a 4 fight win streak snapped at UFC 189 but they’ve given him a winnable fight here Pendred will do what he always does and grind out a decision win. As the lower priced fighter, he’s a must for my team. Stevie Ray is a finisher and I think the Scottish fighter is going to blitz Mickael Lebout and score a dynamic KO win. My last pick is Darren Till. Unbeaten, fighting close to home and he’s an underdog. Great value pick in my opinion. Someone’s zero has got to go and I think it will Nicolas Dalby’s.
PEACH MACHINE- Norman Parke ($10,800), Nicolas Dalby ($10,100), Scott Askham ($9,700), Paddy Holohan ($9,600), Jon Delos Reyes ($9,400)
I was taking Dustin Poirier, but switched to Paddy Holohan when Poirier’s fight was cancelled. I’m also taking Jon Delos, my Guam homie. I trained with him in Guam and was always impressed by his grit. He’s tough as hell, and had a great fight last time out in Manila. It was a blood bath. I expect him to finish. Norman Parke I believe is underrated. He’s dang good but has lost his last two by split decisions. He’s got a ton of potential and a lot to prove here in his home country. I expect a good showing with Parke scoring a lot of points off of strikes. Scott Askham I chose more as a pick against Jotko. I don’t think Jotko will last any longer and I expect him to get KO’d and then cut. Finally, I went with Nicolas Dalby because his nickname is Sharpshooter and I’m a huge fan of Bret Hart and Tyson Kidd. That’s the sort of in depth analysis you get with the PeachMachine… I’m actually pretty interested in this show but there are a lot of guys that the average fan won’t recognize. This card does have potential to be fun, and it’s airing in the middle of the afternoon, so you know what that means… Day drinking!
NOTE: Due to an error with Draft Kings, UFC 192 events did not take place, therefore we have no scores from that event to compare how we did. We hope that doesn’t happen this time.