UFC Fight Night 100 DFS Playbook: Who to target & who to avoid

Here’s some advice for who to pick in your DraftKings lineup for Saturday’s UFC Fight Night 100 event in Sao Paulo, Brazil, headlined by Ryan Bader taking on Antonio Rogerio Nogueira in a five-round light heavyweight bout on FOX Sports 1.

Top Target: Thomas Almeida ($9,700)

Thomas Almeida comes into Saturday night’s UFC Fight Night 100 event in Sao Paulo looking to do something he has never done- rebound from a loss. Almeida started his career off with twenty straight wins, 19 coming by stoppage, leading to his first UFC main event in May. That night on Memorial Day Weekend didn’t go as planned as Almeida suffered his first loss, being knocked out by Cody Garbrandt in the first round. Garbrandt has since gone on to earn a title shot at 135 pounds, and Almeida is looking to get back on track towards earning a title opportunity himself.

As he looks to bounce back, Almeida takes on Albert Morales, who comes into his second UFC bout with an unbeaten record in seven fights. Morales had a draw with Alejandro Perez in his UFC debut, and Almeida is a major step up in competition. It is a winnable fight for Morales if he is able to execute a solid gameplan as Almeida is a hittable fighter and Morales hits with a lot of power. Almeida can take a few minutes to get going, but when he is on, he is one of the most dangerous fighters in the bantamweight division.

Almeida is a strong volume striker, and his constant pressure wears down his foes quickly. He has a strong arsenal of attacks, using his hands, knees and feet to finish fights. The majority of his stoppage wins have come in the first round. This fight is going to be contested on the feet as I don’t see either man attempting to get the fight to the mat. Almeida commands the highest salary on this card, but I think that is justified. His experience is going to be hard for Morales to match in ability, and Almeida is definitely the better fighter.

There is no question about that. I’m expecting a big stoppage win quickly for Almeida as he gets back on track.

Value Target: Antonio Rogerio Nogueira ($6,700)

Despite a long and somewhat storied career, Antonio Rogerio Nogueira will only be competing in his second UFC main event when he steps inside the Octagon across from Ryan Bader on Saturday night. Bader is an injury replacement for Alexander Gustafsson, and this is yet another rematch fight in a main event position on Saturday. Bader won the first fight by decision, and he won it rather easily.

Over six years have passed and both men are in different stages now than then. Nogueira is on the back end of his career at 40-years-old, while Bader is on the cusp of title contention following a recent run of six wins in his last seven fights. Bader is also on the last fight of his contract, and that could be a little bit of a distraction. The last time Bader headlined a Brazilian fight card, he was knocked out in the opening round by Glover Teixeira. Nogueira still has his excellent boxing skill, and fighting in Brazil in a headline position could give him some boosted confidence.

Bader has also improved greatly since their first fight as he is more of a well-rounded mixed martial artist. He has big power in his hands and still has his great wrestling. He is great at mixing his high output of strikes with his takedown attempts, and while he isn’t a finish threat on the mat, he can keep an opponent down. Nogueira should know what to expect, and he is going to be looking to use his striking from the southpaw position to keep Bader at a distance. Nogueira has that power in his hands and Bader can be finished. This fight may be Bader’s to lose, but Nogueira has a really good shot at winning due to his striking skills.

Nogueira has such a low salary that it is going to be hard to pass up, and he has very good value at his price point. If you need a low-cost option, Lil’ Nog is a great option.

Target To Avoid: Johnny Eduardo ($8,600)

It’s crazy to think that Johnny Eduardo, at 36 years of age, is now in his 20th year of competing, as he made his professional debut in November 1996. It is a career that has spanned 37 professional fights, but he is stepping inside the Octagon for only the fifth time on Saturday night when he takes on Manvel Gamburyan. Eduardo has been under the UFC umbrella since August 2011 as injuries have slowed him down to just four fights in over five years. He hasn’t fought since December, which was his first fight since May 2014. He has shown a good share of ring rust in his fights, and he may show that again when he fights the tough Gamburyan.

Both men are power strikers and this fight will likely be decided by takedowns. Gamburyan is a skilled takedown artist and Eduardo has strong takedown defense. Eduardo is going to have the length and reach advantage over the stocky Gamburyan, but Gamburyan is good enough to get inside the pocket and deliver strong body shots. Eduardo knows how to keep his foes at a distance with punishing leg kicks. The biggest thing is Eduardo doesn’t have a lot of volume output on his strikes while Gamburyan is constantly threatening with the takedown. Eduardo’s takedown defense is going to have to be at a peak in this one.

In fantasy scoring, with Eduardo not landing a lot of strikes, he isn’t going to rack up points that way. He isn’t going to rack up points getting takedowns as I don’t expect him to score any. I don’t even think he’s going to win this fight, but if he does, it’s going to be a decision win where he doesn’t have a lot of scoring impact. He has a higher salary, and I think he is the fighter to avoid on this fight card.

Underdog Target: Gadzhimurad Antigulov ($7,700)

Gadzhimurad Antigulov makes his UFC debut in Sao Paulo when he takes on Brazilian light heavyweight Marcos Rogerio de Lima in what could be an action-packed preliminary bout. Antigulov is 18-4 in his career but enters the UFC riding a 12-fight win streak. What is even more impressive is that in his 18 career wins, 17 have come by stoppage- twelve by submission and four by knockout. However, he has been finished in all four of his career losses.

In contrast, de Lima has only been the distance three times in his 18-fight career. Simply put, this fight likely isn’t going the full 15 minutes. Both men are aggressive fighters with heavy hands. de Lima has a clear advantage on the feet while Antigulov has an advantage in the grappling and ground game departments. Antigulov has a background in Sambo, but the big question in his skillset is his conditioning. He gets tired very easily. de Lima gets tired easily as well.

Neither man sees a lot of action past the opening round, so if this goes longer than five minutes, it could get very interesting. A longer fight favors a striker, and de Lima would be stronger later. It’s a matter of which fighter is going to be able to implement his gameplan. I like Antigulov in this fight, and he is a very good underdog target at a $7,700 salary.

Both men have real good shots at winning, but when you need an underdog, he is as good of a bet as any.

Our Line-ups

Ryan Frederick: Thomas Almeida ($9,700), Claudia Gadelha ($9,200), Justin Scoggins ($8,400), Darren Stewart ($8,200), Gadzhimurad Antigulov ($7,700), Antonio Rogerio Nogueira ($6,700)

With Thomas Almeida being my top target on this card, he is definitely going in my line-up. I like Gadzhimurad Antigulov and Antonio Rogerio Nogueira as underdog value picks, and they are part of my line-up. I’m rounding out my final three spots with Claudia Gadelha, Justin Scoggins and Darren Stewart. Gadelha is looking to get back into title contention as she fights Cortney Casey. Gadelha is the superior fighter and if she can get inside the length of Casey, her takedowns and top game should net her a good amount of points.

Scoggins moves up to 135 pounds, and his power should follow him there. He is improving everywhere and his fight with Pedro Munhoz should be a very good fight. I give him the edge and he has a good shot at finishing Munhoz. Stewart makes his UFC debut and while he is short for 205 pounds, he is an excellent wrestler. Takedowns score a lot of points and I expect some takedowns as he fights Francimar Barroso. It’s a winnable fight for him and I like his chances.

Paul Fontaine: Jack Hermansson ($8,900), Kamaru Usman ($8,800), Sergio Moraes ($8,700), Thales Leites ($8,300), Gadzhimurad Antigulov ($7,700), Manny Gamburyan ($7,600)

Jack Hermansson is on a 9 fight win streak and prior to his UFC debut had finished most of his opponents. He should do that here again an overmatched Cezar Ferreira. Kamaru Usman is a future star in the welterweight division and he should have a great fight with local product Warlley Alves but he’ll come out ahead. The first Brazillian on my team is Sergio Moraes. He hasn’t lost since his UFC debut in 2012 and has finished all but one of his opponents since then. 

A couple of veterans in Thales Leites and Manny Gamburyan are my net two picks and I look for each to score quick stoppage wins and earn me a lot of points. I’m going completely the other way with the debuting Gadzhimurad Antigulov. He makes his UFC debut on a 12 fight win streak and my rule is almost always to bet on debuting Russian fighters. 

Peach Machine: Ryan Bader ($9,500), Claudia Gadelha ($9,200), Sergio Moraes ($8,700), Darren Stewart ($8,200), Gadzhimuard Antigulov ($7,700), Albert Morales ($6,500)

Bader has the unenviable task of ending the career of Noguiera. Morales has the lowest price tag so I took him. Gadelha is awesome, she should dominate. Sergio Moraes is awesome and I suspect he’ll get the submission win. Antigulov is a blind stab in the dark, and I picked Darren Stewart because I like his attributes.