UFC 212 Observer Panel Picks: Filthy Tom joins the panel

The UFC is back on PPV tonight, and while this isn’t the deepest lineup overall, the show is headlined by what has the potential to be the fight of the year. It’s champion vs. champion as featherweight kingpin Jose Aldo goes up against interim champion Max Holloway and his 11-fight win streak.

Both title combatants have something in common in that they last tasted defeat at the hands of the current lightweight champion Conor McGregor. They also, somewhat ironically, both beat former lightweight champions to claim their versions of the title.

The co-main features two of the top contenders to the strawweight title fighting for a title rematch as both Karolina Kowalkiewicz and Claudia Gadelha have lost to Joanna Champion when going for the belt.

Former light heavyweight champion Vitor Belfort returns to his home country in what could be one of his last fights against fellow veteran Nate “The Great” Marquardt. One of these guys will come away with a victory and potentially rejuvenate their career.

There isn’t much else on this show in terms of marquee matchups. For our final two panel picks, we’ve gone with the almost always entertaining Erick Silva vs. Yancy Medeiros. The two have combined for 10 post-show award bonuses, so this has the potential to steal the show. Finally, the fight that will anchor the FS1 prelims is former WSOF bantamweight champion Marlon Moraes making his UFC debut against the veteran Raphael Assuncao.

You may notice that our panel has gotten a lot filthier this time out. Joining the crew is UFC veteran and budding pro wrestling superstar Tom Lawlor. Glen Jacobs was not available.

If you’re new here, our panel picks are listed below and listed alongside the fighters’ names are their worldwide FightMatrix rankings, as well as BestFightOdds.com betting odds. The panelists’ 2017 records are in parentheses, and we also have panel consensus picks as well as a line where we show how the betting favorites did:

  • John Pollock (27-11; .711) — Fight Network analyst, Live Audio Wrestling co-host, MMA Report co-host
  • Consensus Picks (25-11; .694)
  • Dave Meltzer (26-12; .684) — Wrestling Observer publisher
  • Favorites (26-12; .684)
  • Mike Sawyer (25-13; .658) — Tough Talk MMA publisher
  • Steve Juon (25-13; .658) — MMA Mania writer, Angry Marks publisher
  • David Bixenspan (24-14; .632) — Deadspin pro wrestling columnist, Between the Sheets podcast host
  • Josh Nason (23-15; .605) — Host of Josh Nason’s Punch-Out, WrestlingObserver.com assistant editor
  • Mike Sempervive (22-16; .579) — Wrestling Observer Live and Big Audio Nightmare co-host
  • Ryan Frederick (21-17; .553) — WrestlingObserver.com UFC writer
  • Paul Fontaine (19-19; .500) — MMADraws.com publisher, WrestlingObserver.com writer
  • Front Row Brian (18-20; .474) — MMA newsbreaker, beloved internet personality, podcast host
  • Tom Lawlor (0-0; .000) — Co-host of Filthy Four Daily, pro wrestling undercard fighter, UFC enhancement talent currently suspended due to wellness violation

UFC featherweight champion Jose Aldo (26-2) vs. interim champion Max Holloway (17-3)

Since dropping a third-round decision to future dual-champion Conor McGregor, Max Holloway has been hotter than any fighter in the company. His 10 straight wins have seen him rise from the prelims to the main card to the main events and finally to this main event PPV title shot.

Standing across the Octagon was the man who, not so long ago, was even hotter than Holloway. Before being knocked out cold by McGregor, Aldo had won 18 straight fights, and to this day he’s the only man in UFC history to actually defend the UFC featherweight title.

Both are coming off impressive wins over former lightweight champions as Aldo dominated Frankie Edgar on his way to a five-round decision win and Holloway KO’d Anthony Pettis in the third round in the main event of UFC 206.

  • Aldo #1; -141 betting favorite — Frederick, Juon, Nason, Pollock, Meltzer, Sempervive
  • Holloway #2; +128 betting underdog — FRB, Sawyer, Lawlor, Fontaine, Bix

Karolina Kowalkiewicz (10-1) vs. Claudia Gadelha (14-2) (strawweights)

Between these two, they have three career losses and they’ve all been at the hands of current strawweight queen Joanna Jedrzejczyk. They are also pretty much regarded as the class of the division outside of the current champion, and whoever wins will probably get another shot at the belt.

Kowalkiewicz beat another top contender, Rose Namajunas, in the fight of the night at UFC 201, which was her third straight win in UFC. Gadelha will be fighting in her home country and will be attempting to win her second straight fight in UFC and fourth overall. She is coming off a decision win over the very tough Cortney Casey.

  • Kowalkiewicz #6; +295 betting underdog
  • Gadelha #3; -321 betting favorite — FRB, Frederick, Sawyer, Juon, Lawlor, Nason, Fontaine, Pollock, Bix, Meltzer, Sempervive

Vitor Belfort (25-13) vs. Nate Marquardt (35-17-2) (middleweights)

Both of these guys have seen better days, but they also have enough power to end this one quickly. Every single one of Belfort’s UFC wins has come by way of stoppage. Marquardt has nine such wins on his record in 13 UFC victories.

Belfort would be on a three-fight losing streak if his loss to Kelvin Gastelum hadn’t been overturned due to a drug test failure. His only win since November 2013 has been a first round KO over the now-retired Dan Henderson. Marquardt has lost seven of his last 10, but all three wins have come by stoppage. He most recently upset Tamdan McCrory by knocking him out in the second round.

  • Belfort #11; -152 betting favorite — Frederick, Sawyer, Fontaine, Pollock, Bix, Meltzer
  • Marquardt #36; +147 betting underdog — FRB, Juon, Lawlor, Nason, Sempervive

Yancie Medeiros (13-4) vs. Erick Silva (19-7) (welterweights)

Medeiros is the second Hawaiian on the main card behind main-eventer Max Holloway. Any fans making the trek to Brazil to see Holloway will likely be behind Medeiros as well. But Silva will be the heavy crowd favorite nonetheless as he’s one of the most popular fighters in his home country due to his reckless and exciting style of fighting.

Silva very much has a kill-or-be-killed philosophy as two of his 13 UFC fights have gone the distance. Medeiros is much the same as three of his four UFC wins have come by way of submission. This could be a sleeper of a great fight.

  • Medeiros #71; -135 betting favorite — Juon, Lawlor, Nason, Pollock, Bix, Meltzer, Sempervive
  • Silva #34; +128 betting underdog — FRB, Frederick, Sawyer, Fontaine

Marlon Moraes (18-4) vs. Raphael Assuncao (24-5) (bantamweights)

Long regarded as one of the world’s best bantamweight fighters outside of the UFC, Moraes will make his long-awaited UFC debut in search of his 14th straight win. Standing in his way will be the tough veteran Raphael Assuncao, who holds a win over former bantamweight champion TJ Dillashaw.

Moraes hasn’t faced a tremendous level of competition on the way to his lengthy streak, but he does have two wins over former TUF fighter Josh Hill. Assuncao is coming off a split-decision win over Aljamain Sterling last time out and, in fact, has only lost one time in the last six-plus years. He could be on the brink of title contention should he knock off the former WSOF champion Moraes here.

  • Moraes #8; -152 betting favorite — FRB, Frederick, Sawyer, Juon, Lawlor, Fontaine, Pollock, Bix
  • Assuncao #11; +145 betting underdog — Nason, Meltzer, Sempervive

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The rest of the card:

Paulo Henrique Costa (9-0) vs. Oluwale Bamgbose (6-2) (middleweights)

  • Costa #75; -269 betting favorite
  • Bamgbose #172; +242 betting underdog

Antonio Carlos Junior (7-2) vs. Eric Spicely (10-1) (middleweights)

  • Junior #50; -211 betting favorite
  • Spicely #26; +201 betting underdog

Johnny Eduardo (28-10) vs. Matthew Lopez (9-1) (bantamweights)

  • Eduardo #28; +160 betting underdog
  • Lopez #63; -160 betting favorite

Iuri Alcantara (35-4) vs. Brian Kelleher (16-7) (bantamweights)

  • Alcantara #10; -309 betting favorite
  • Kelleher #38; +279 betting underdog

Viviane Pereira (12-0) vs. Jamie Moyle (4-1) (strawweights)

  • Pereira #13; -135 betting favorite
  • Moyle #38; +138 betting underdog

Luan Chagas (14-2) vs. Jim Wallhead (29-10) (welterweights)

  • Chagas #99; -249 betting favorite
  • Wallhead #108; +221 betting underdog

Marco Antonio Beltran (8-4) vs. Deiveson Alcantra (11-0) (flyweights)

  • Beltran #81 at bantamweight; +125 betting underdog
  • Alcantra #34; -137 betting favorite

Action begins with the Fight Pass prelims at 6:30 p.m. ET and moves over to FS1 at 8 p.m. ET. The main card airs on PPV at 10 p.m. ET, covered by yours truly.