UFC 201 DFS Playbook: value picks, who to avoid

The Octagon returns to Atlanta for the first time since 2012 on Saturday for UFC 201 from the Phillips Arena in Atlanta, Georgia. The fight card, live on pay-per-view, is headlined by a UFC Welterweight Championship bout as champion Robbie Lawler makes his third title defense, this time defending against challenger Tyron Woodley.

Below are our studs, value plays and fighters to avoid when making your daily fantasy line-ups for Saturday’s UFC 201 event.

STUDS

Matt Brown ($10,900)

Matt Brown has the second-highest salary of the 24 fighters on the card despite having lost three of his last four fights. That says a lot about his opponent at UFC 201 on Saturday night, Jake Ellenberger, who has lost two straight and five of his last six fights. This is a big fight for both men who are in desperate need of a win, especially Ellenberger, who could be cut if he were to lose again.

Brown is a little more safe in the division, especially considering his last three losses have come to the likes of Robbie Lawler, Johny Hendricks and Demian Maia. Brown is much more dangerous at this stage as Ellenberger has clearly lost a step. Ellenberger has been finished in four of his last six losses, and if his opponents in his two losses by decision had fought with more aggression, he could’ve been stopped in those. Brown is by no means a fighter incapable of being finished as ten of his 14 losses have come by submission, but he has never been knocked out.

These two will likely throw a lot of punches and bring an entertaining fight and Brown is the favorite in this one. I really like his chances in finishing Ellenberger, and making Brown my top play is more picking against Ellenberger than picking for Brown. Roll with him as one of your top plays.

Robbie Lawler ($10,600)

Robbie Lawler makes his third defense of the UFC Welterweight Championship in the main event of UFC 201 on Saturday as he defends against Tyron Woodley. Lawler has been in a lot of classic bouts over the last few years, including two fights winning “Fight Of The Year”, and another potential winner of that award this year in his successful, albeit close, win over Carlos Condit in January.Woodley isn’t a fighter that screams excitement, but Lawler is going to make it a fun one.

Since returning to the UFC in 2013, Lawler has landed the most significant strikes in UFC competition. However, he has also absorbed the most significant strikes in UFC competition during that same period. Woodley is more of a wrestler than a striker, and he may be unwilling to go toe-to-toe with Lawler on the feet for a significant portion of the fight. Lawler also has strong takedown defense so this will likely be contested mostly on the feet. I can see a situation where Lawler finishes Woodley in the later rounds, as Woodley has only been in one five-round fight in his career, and in that one, he was finished in the fourth round by Nate Marquardt after getting tired.

Roll with Lawler as one of your top plays as I see him getting a lot of points, especially as the fight drags deeper into the 25 minutes.

VALUE PLAYS

Ed Herman ($9,200)

Ed Herman just recently celebrated ten years with the UFC and he is looking to celebrate on Saturday night as he looks to score his second straight win as he takes on Nikita Krylov. This is also Herman’s second time competing as a light heavyweight after spending his first 17 UFC bouts as a middleweight, and he looked good at the new weight class when he knocked out Tim Boetsch in January.

Herman is the very definition of a gatekeeper in the UFC, but not many of those have a ten-year career with the promotion. Krylov has shown to be a solid rising contender in a 205-pound division that really needs it, but at the same time, the opponents he has beaten are lower on the totem pole than Herman. Herman is the most experienced opponent he has fought inside the Octagon and Krylov is going to have to test the durability of Herman. Herman is solid on his feet and good in the clinch, but he will have to avoid the crafty submissions of Krylov. Herman has the chance to step up and ruin the rising status of Krylov, and he has a very good shot of scoring the upset based on experience.

Herman’s salary makes him an intriguing addition to your roster and I see very good value in him.

Bojan Velickovic ($8,900)

Bojan Velickovic is looking to end the undefeated mark of Michael Graves when they meet in the featured preliminary bout on UFC Fight Pass at UFC 201. Velickovic is a former top prospect from the American Top Team camp, and Graves is now one of the top prospects from that camp. Velickovic is a big welterweight and will have the size advantage over Graves, and he has almost three times the amount of experience in professional competition over Graves.

Graves is a solid wrestler who likes to take control from the top position, and he can score some points with takedowns. Velickovic is stronger on the feet and he has dangerous submissions, and if he finds himself on the bottom for a long time, he can find submission attempts there. Both men are finishers as Graves has scored five of his six career wins by stoppage, and Velickovic has scored eleven of his 14 wins by stoppage. Neither man has been finished in their careers and Velickovic is looking to hand Graves his first loss.

This card screams a lot of decisions, and Velickovic may not be able to stop Graves, but at his salary, he is a good underdog bet to win on Saturday, and you have to roll your roster with a couple of underdogs. He is a solid one.

FIGHTERS TO AVOID

Jorge Masvidal ($10,700)

I’m going to start this off by saying I think Jorge Masvidal gets the win on Saturday night. He actually came on this card on late notice, but his opponent, Ross Pearson, is coming in on even shorter notice and has already fought once this month. Pearson lost a decision to Will Brooks on July 8, and now he returns quickly, and moves up a weight class looking to bounce back. Neither man have had a lot of consistency in recent times as Pearson is just 4-5 in his last nine fights and Masvidal is 1-3 in his last four.

Both men have their backs against the wall and desperately need a win. Pearson at his $8,700 salary makes an interesting value and underdog play, but his quick turnaround of 22 days is going to be tough to overcome. He didn’t take a lot of damage from Brooks, but Brooks still wore him down, and Brooks and Masvidal are actually teammates, so Masvidal’s coaches already have their gameplan down. I don’t see either man finishing the other, and I sense a close fight.

With Masvidal’s salary being so high, while I think he gets the win, it is just too much to justify when there are better options at similar salaries. I’m recommending passing on Masvidal on this card.

Ryan Benoit ($9,500)

Ryan Benoit is taking his fight at UFC 201 on Saturday on very late notice as he steps in on just over a week’s notice to take on undefeated Fredy Serrano in a bout that was moved up to the main card after some last-minute changes. Benoit has three appearances inside the Octagon, going 1-2 in those bouts. That actually equals the overall career experience held in MMA by Serrano, who is 3-0 in his young career.

Serrano has a lot of competition experience though as he is an Olympic wrestler and a former medalist in the Pan Am Games. He may be inexperienced, but he has scored three stoppage wins in his young career. He has scored knockout wins in his two UFC bouts and he is developing into a power striker. Benoit is a good kickboxer and has scored seven of his eight wins by knockout, and he has yet to be finished in his career by knockout.

Benoit coming in on the short notice puts him at a disadvantage, and I don’t think his skills can match those of Serrano. Serrano should be able to take him down and is a good bet to score a finish. I’m avoiding Benoit on this card.

OUR LINE-UPS

RYAN FREDERICK- Matt Brown ($10,900), Robbie Lawler ($10,600), Fredy Serrano ($9,900), Francisco Rivera ($9,700), Bojan Velickovic ($8,900)

I like Matt Brown and Robbie Lawler as my studs on this card, and they are my top two plays, and I’m having both of them on my roster. Jake Ellenberger looks washed up and Brown is a bringer of violence, plus Brown needs this win if he ever has any thoughts of challenging for a title someday. I see him finishing Ellenberger in the second round. Lawler always has great fights and while Tyron Woodley is a big challenge, Lawler can overcome it and wear down Woodley into a finish in the later rounds.

I like Fredy Serrano against a late replacement in Ryan Benoit, and Serrano is a powerhouse at 125 pounds. Francisco Rivera is an exciting bantamweight who throws down, and is in a must-win situation, so I see him taking chances and looking for the finish of Erik Perez. Bojan Velickovic is my last roster member. I think he has the best chance at the underdog win and finish, and you have to have two of those on your roster. I see him as the best value.

PAUL FONTAINE- Matt Brown ($10,900),  Damian Grabowski ($10,000), Fredy Serrano ($9,900), Damien Brown ($9,800). Ed Herman ($9,200)

Matt Brown is a no-brainer for me. His opponent Jake Ellenberger is pretty much done and Brown has a chip on his shoulder and feels he has something to prove. I think he gets a first round stoppage here. Grabowski should submit Hamilton in the first or second round. Serrano is old in age but young in fighting age and should rack up his fourth straight stoppage win in a fight just added to the main card.

Damien Brown is a fun fighter and while I don’t know much about his debuting opponent, Brown had 5 straight stoppage wins prior to losing his UFC debut and I like him to get back to his winning ways on Saturday night. I really wanted Nikita Krylov on my team but I couldn’t fit him in under the cap so I’m going with his opponent Ed Herman. Herman is a battle-tested vet who still has the ability to stop anyone. A lot of vets have been scoring surprising wins of late and I hope Herman is the next one to do it.

PEACH MACHINE- Matt Brown ($10,900), Jorge Masvidal ($10,700), Erik Perez ($9,700), Ryan Benoit ($9,500), Tyron Woodley ($9,000)

This is a bad styles fight for Lawler. I expect T-Wood to employ the same strategy he used to bore us to death against Gastelum. I wouldn’t be surprised to see T-Wood do just enough to win the strap. Brown is a killer and Ellenberger always disappoints. I like Brown to finish. I really think Masvidal is going to be a contender at 170 and Pearson just fought less than a month ago. Perez is tough and is going to be in a war. I expect a lot of points from him.

Same thought for Benoit, but Benoit is taking the fight on short notice, although now days, 72 hours is the industry minimum. I don’t really feel good about this card. Last card I went 5-0. I’m not expecting that again.