UFC 200 DFS Playbook: value picks, who to avoid

It is the biggest event in UFC history as the Octagon makes its’ debut in the brand new T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas for UFC 200. A stacked card that has undergone some last-minute changes finds UFC Women’s Bantamweight Champion Miesha Tate and challenger Amanda Nunes as the main event.

Below are our studs, value plays and fighters to avoid when setting your fantasy line-ups for Saturday night’s event.

STUDS

Sage Northcutt ($11,300)

He’s the biggest betting favorite and has the highest salary on the UFC 200 card, but I also think he is the safest play in terms of scoring a finish win on the card, so Sage Northcutt is my top play for this event.

He looked like the beginner he is in his last fight, his first career loss, when he was submitted by Bryan Barberena, but I see that fight as too much and too soon for him. Plus, he went up a weight class at last minute notice, and he openly has admitted he was really sick and not feeling himself and probably shouldn’t have fought.

I don’t see those factors being there this time, and he is getting another step down back to the lower levels of the lightweight division as he takes on Enrique Marin.

Marin is 8-3 in his career but is coming off a split decision loss in his UFC debut, and he didn’t look all that impressive. I actually think this is the most favorable match-up Northcutt has had in his UFC career, and he has two finishes in his two wins. I think he bounces back and gets a finish, so Northcutt is worth the risk.

T.J. Dillashaw ($11,100)

T.J. Dillashaw is an interesting play at his salary as he has the third-highest salary on the card, and what happens when he steps inside the Octagon across from Raphael Assuncao on Saturday night will be really interesting.

They are battling for a title shot and Assuncao is riding a 7-fight win streak, which includes a previous win over Dillashaw, but he hasn’t fought since October 2014 as he has battled injuries. The rust will likely be there for Assuncao, and this is his first fight since the new testing regime, and he was always a huge bantamweight.

Dillashaw is coming off a close loss to Dominick Cruz in losing the UFC Bantamweight Championship, and he wants that back.

That gives him plenty of motivation to make quick work of Assuncao, and that is before mentioning he is looking to avenge a loss. I see Dillashaw racking up a lot of points, and if you are someone wanting to avoid using Sage Northcutt, I see Dillashaw as a solid stud to take.

VALUE PLAYS

Jose Aldo ($9,500)

Jose Aldo has a little higher salary than I usually put in the value plays section, but he has some good value at a relatively solid salary for his fight at UFC 200 on Saturday night. Aldo is taking on Frankie Edgar for the Interim UFC Featherweight Championship, and he holds a win over Edgar at UFC 156 in February 2013.

Aldo is hungry to erase the stinging memory of his 13-second knockout loss to Conor McGregor in December, and he wants that rematch with McGregor, and a win over Edgar would make that wish come closer to happening.

I do expect the fight to go the full 25 minutes, giving both men more chances to score points. It is hard to say what Aldo will look like as he has only fought for 13 seconds since October 2014, and he is kind of a wild card in this new era of the UFC.

Edgar is still quick on his punches but Aldo was able to negate what Edgar was good at in their first bout. It’s really a toss-up as to who will win, so going with Aldo would provide good value for this card.

Takanori Gomi ($8,600)

Let me start this by saying that I had Daniel Cormier as my second value play, but that all changed on Wednesday, so this article had to be edited. It is hard to find value with other fighters on this card as I think the betting favorites are going to win, but I like Takanori Gomi at his salary.

He has struggled in losing three of his last four fights, but so has his opponent, Jim Miller, who has lost four of his last five. They will fight in the opening bout of the card, and they wanna set the stage early and go for the fight of the night bonus early, so I expect fireworks in this bout.

Gomi hits hard but Miller is tough to finish on his feet, so he will need to avoid being taken down. They will probably trade a lot of punches and score some points, and I expect a close decision.

It is a long-shot, but I feel Gomi has one of the best chances to score an upset. I think he is worth taking a value risk.

FIGHTERS TO AVOID

Kelvin Gastelum ($9,300)

Kelvin Gastelum is looking to rebound from the disappointments of his first two career losses when he takes on Johny Hendricks at UFC 200. He does have a quick knockout win over Nate Marquardt, but Marquardt is on the back end of his career, and his losses have come to top fighters in Tyron Woodley and Neil Magny.

Hendricks is another top opponent who is looking to bounce back from losses in two of his last three fights as well. Both men are in need of a win to stay in that title hunt mix, and both men are real mirror images of each other.

Both are southpaws with strong wrestling, though Hendricks hits harder and is the better wrestler of the two. I think that the similar styles will make for a lackluster bout, and neither will take many chances as they both try to get the win.

I like Hendricks to win the fight, and Gastelum doesn’t offer much from a fantasy standpoint for this fight. I’m avoiding him this event.

Amanda Nunes ($8,700)

Amanda Nunes is in the biggest fight of her career at UFC 200 when she challenges Miesha Tate for the UFC Women’s Bantamweight Championship. Nunes has scored wins in three straight fights and is 5-1 in her UFC career.

She has earned her opportunity. She has a chance to get the win over Tate, but I don’t see it. Nunes always starts out strong but starts fading about seven minutes into a fight, and Tate is tough and gritty and will grind Nunes down from there. I don’t see Nunes finishing Tate in the first round, so it will be a tough road for her to get a decision from Tate.

She has that chance but has to strike early, and for that, I don’t see her being a viable fantasy option on this card. She is an avoid for me.

OUR LINE-UPS

RYAN FREDERICK- Sage Northcutt ($11,300), Cain Velasquez ($11,200), Frankie Edgar ($9,900), Brock Lesnar ($9,000), Takanori Gomi ($8,600)

I’ve got Sage Northcutt as my top play, and he is leading off my roster. I think he makes quick work of Enrique Marin.

Cain Velasquez has a high salary, but with being able to do a full camp alongside Daniel Cormier, I think he will score a lot of points against Travis Browne.

Frankie Edgar has 25 minutes to score points, and he is very active with his striking. I like him to win over Jose Aldo and score a lot. I have Takanori Gomi as a low-salary option on my team. I’m not too confident in this, but he does have power.

Lastly, I’m going with Brock Lesnar. I think he beats Mark Hunt, and finishes him in the second round.

PAUL FONTAINE- TJ Dillashaw ($11,100), Mark Hunt ($10,400), Amanda Nunes ($8,700), Thiago Santos ($8,400), Travis Browne ($8,200)

TJ Dillashaw has wanted this rematch with Raphael Assuncao for a long time. He’s a much better and complete fighter than he was when they first met and TJ lost a split decision in 2013. Assuncao hasn’t fought in almost 2 years and I think that hurts him here.

Hunt, to me, is the biggest lock on the card. I don’t see anything but a quick KO win over Lesnar.

I like Nunes to score the upset win over Tate. She’s a finisher and while Tate is a determined fighter, her last 3 losses have all come by finish. Santos has a lot of power for the middleweight division and I think that he will KO Mousasi.

Travis Browne is my last pick and I think that his fight with Cain Velasquez is going to be quick either way but I do think that Cain is starting to show his age and is prime for a finish at the hands of the rising contender Browne. 

PEACH MACHINE- Cain Velasquez ($11,200), Cat Zingano ($10,500), Frankie Edgar ($9,900), Kelvin Gastelum ($9,300), Brock Lesnar ($9,000)

Cain. Edgar. Always. Lesnar because it’s only 3 rounds. He can grind out Hunt for 15 minutes. Gastelum is better at 185 but I think he’ll be better than Hendricks at 170. I’m betting Hendricks misses weight. Zingano has had a lot of time off since her destruction at the hands of Rousey, but I predict there’s no ring rust for her and she smashes Pena. Another perfect team.