UFC 199 DFS Playbook: value picks, who to avoid

The Octagon returns to the Los Angeles area this weekend for UFC 199 at The Forum in Inglewood, California, on Saturday for the next big pay-per-view event. It is headlined by two title bouts as UFC Middleweight Champion Luke Rockhold defends against Michael Bisping, and UFC Bantamweight Champion Dominick Cruz defends against Urijah Faber. Below are our studs, value plays and fighters to avoid when making your fantasy line-ups for Saturday’s UFC 199 event.

STUDS — 

Luke Rockhold ($11,400)

Luke Rockhold has the highest salary of the 26 fighters competing on the UFC 199 card, and with him defending his newly-won UFC Middleweight Championship in the main event, he is poised to have a big night. He was originally scheduled to defend against Chris Weidman, but a neck injury suffered by Weidman forced him to pull out, thrusting Michael Bisping into the title fight on just two weeks’ notice. We’ve already seen what Rockhold has done to Bisping before, and that was with Bisping on a full training camp.

Bisping has come along well since being dominated and submitted by Rockhold in November 2014, but there isn’t much to show that a second fight between the two would be any different. Rockhold is one of the best fighters in the world, with excellent kickboxing and smooth submissions. There is a reason he has the highest salary on the card, and I expect him to defeat Bisping in similiar fashion to their first bout. Rockhold is the biggest must-own on the card.

Dustin Poirier ($10,600)

Dustin Poirier is looking for his fourth consecutive win since making the move to 155 pounds when he takes on Bobby Green in the main card opener on Saturday night at UFC 199. Poirier went into his last fight against Joseph Duffy as a solid underdog, but put on perhaps his most impressive performance in his UFC career when he dominated Duffy en route to a decision victory. His opponent on Saturday, Green, hasn’t fought since November 2014, and is coming off of major knee surgery. Poirier has shown excellent striking and a good submission game, and Green is a very solid fighter. However, Green coming off of the major injury raises a lot of questions, and they will all be in Poirier’s favor. Green is tough, but I expect Poirier to put up a lot of points and to get the win on Saturday.

VALUE PLAYS —

Luis Henrique da Silva ($8,700)

Luis Henrique da Silva is the latest addition to the UFC light heavyweight division and he enters his debut fight on Saturday with a perfect 10-0 record. He has also won all ten of his fights by stoppage, and only twice has he gone past the first round. He has also done all of this in just over two-and-a-half years of active competition, and at 26-years-old, he has every chance to become a threat at 205 pounds. He fights another undefeated 205-pound prospect in Jonathan Wilson in preliminary action.

Wilson does have one UFC bout in his career, a quick first-round knockout win over Chris Dempsey last August. Wilson has scored six of his seven career wins by knockout, so both men have power. You’re likely looking at a finish in this fight, so it’s a matter of finding value. I like da Silva to win this fight, and at just an $8,700 salary, he is going to be an excellent value pick that will help you fit your budget.

Dan Henderson ($8,400)

Dan Henderson is a legend of the sport, but a legend that is nearing the end of his career at 45 years of age. This is the last fight on his UFC contract, and retirement may be next, though continuing to fight is still on his mind. If this is his last fight, he wants to ride out into the sunset in impressive fashion. He is coming off the disappointment of a fight week cancellation of his bout against Lyoto Machida, and now he fights Hector Lombard on Saturday. Lombard is making the move back up to the middleweight division after some time at 170 pounds, and he is coming off a loss to Neil Magny in which he looked great for four minutes but faded quickly.

He still has power but Henderson still has a chin, but Lombard can be knocked out if a punch connects. And Hendo still hits very hard no matter his age. Lombard is in a must win fight, and that could make him fight reckless, which opens the door for Henderson. With that right hand, a salary of $8,400 always makes Henderson a value play. He has a very good chance of winning this.

FIGHTERS TO AVOID —

Jessica Penne ($10,200)

Jessica Penne is one of our two fighters to avoid on this card. She hasn’t fought in nearly a year and is coming off a beating at the hands of strawweight champ Joanna Jedrzejczyk in Germany last June. She is still a little undersized for 115 pounds, and she will be taking on an opponent who will have the size advantage over her in Jessica Andrade, who is moving down from 135 pounds. Andrade had mixed success as a bantamweight but has lost two of her last three and a move was likely necessary if she wants to fight for a title in the future. Penne is more well-rounded and is the betting favorite. I like Penne to get the win here, but I don’t expect her to get a finish, and I don’t expect her to rack up a lot of points in getting the win. There are better options on this card, so she will be a pass for me.

Clay Guida ($8,500)

Clay Guida is an interesting one. He is still one of the more beloved fighters on the UFC roster, and he probably has a job for life. He has been firmly established as a gatekeeper but can still score a win on any given fight night. He is being used as a stepping stone on Saturday for the undefeated Brian Ortega, who is going to get a push in the featherweight division. It is another chance for Ortega to build his resume, but another dangerous one. Guida is still a great wrestler but can be submitted and Ortega is great at submitting opponents. Guida can still be competitive, but I don’t think he can against ranked opponents, which Ortega is. However, we have seen fighters who are being groomed for stardom have their hype trains derailed, and Guida is capable of doing that to Ortega. It is just too risky to think it will happen to where you would want Guida in your lineup. Guida is a pass for me.

OUR LINEUPS —

RYAN FREDERICK: Luke Rockhold ($11,400), Dominick Cruz ($11,300), James Vick ($9,400), Luis Henrique da Silva ($8,700), Dan Henderson ($8,400)

Luke Rockhold is my top pick. I fully expect him to finish Michael Bisping in their championship bout in the same kind of fashion that he finished them the first time they fought. Bisping may be better than he was then, but so is Rockhold, who is one of the best in the world. I’m also putting Dominick Cruz on my roster. I think he beats Urijah Faber, and I think it goes the distance, and that 25 minutes is more chances to rack up points. James Vick is undefeated and has looked good, and Beneil Dariush is having a quick turnaround after being finished, and I like Vick in their fight. Luis Henrique da Silva and Dan Henderson are my value plays, and I have them both on my roster. I see them both scoring knockout wins, which will be big points.

PAUL FONTAINE: Luke Rockhold ($11,400), Max Holloway ($10,800), Elvis Mutapcic ($9,600), Dong Hyun Maestro Kim ($9,300), Urijah Faber ($8,100)

This is a tough show to pick a team for with a lot of big favorites. I’ll start with Faber, who if I’m picking straight up, I think he probably loses. But the way he wins is by catching Cruz in a quick submission and if he does, it will be a lot of points. Even if it goes five rounds and he loses, he might score a lot of strikes. Rockhold to me is almost guaranteed to score an early finish, as he’s done in his last five fights. Holloway is similar as he’s rung up 8 straight wins since losing to Conor McGregor. I like the Maestro to beat Polo Reyes, who has a 5-2 career record with both losses coming inside the distance.

PEACH MACHINE: Dominick Cruz ($11,300), Dustin Poirier ($10,600), James Vick ($9,400), Jessica Andrade ($9,200), Dan Henderson ($8,400)

I always go with Hendo. I’m sure it’s a bad choice, but Hendo was pissed that Machida didn’t fight him last month, so I’m hoping he takes it out on Lombard. Poirier is a total killer and I like him to finish Green. Andrade is tough and Penne has been out for a long time. This will be a good fight. I believe Cruz is the smartest fighter today and I expect him to make Faber look silly.