AEW x NJPW Forbidden Door preview & predictions: Open door policy
The following is an opinion-based preview and does not reflect the views of the website.
Image: AEW
The Forbidden Door doesn’t seem as forbidden this year.
With the cross-pollination of talent built through AEW’s working relationships with CMLL and NJPW, the newness of the event isn’t what it was. These relationships are undeniably good. The influx of CMLL talent in AEW on a more regular basis had led to some of the better matches on AEW TV this year, but it does make this event lose some of its rarity.
MJF can (and should) wrestle Hechicero on any episode of Dynamite, same with Toni Storm vs. Mina Shirakawa and Zack Sabre Jr. vs. Orange Cassidy. We’ve reached a point where there isn’t as much of a need for a standalone event like this. The headliner this year is Will Ospreay vs. Swerve Strickland: a main event-worthy match under any circumstance, but one that is predictable and even expected. The previous Forbidden Doors were headlined by Bryan Danielson vs. Kazuchika Okada and Jon Moxley vs. Hiroshi Tanahashi while this year’s are just two regular AEW wrestlers.
The overall match quality is excellent though. There are matches up and down the card worth tuning in for — all of which offer something different. MJF’s return to the PPV stage against a beautiful opponent, Bryan Danielson and Shingo Takagi beating the brakes off each other, the IWGP title being is on the line, the progression of a long-simmering women’s program with Storm and Mariah May…I could go on forever, baby. There’s really only one stinker on the whole card (read on to find out more, it should be no surprise), so let’s give AEW x NJPW Forbidden Door (Sunday at 8 PM Eastern on PPV) a rundown.
The Elite (The Young Bucks & Kazuchika Okada) vs. The Acclaimed (Anthony Bowens & Max Caster) and Hiroshi Tanahashi
Maybe Tanahashi’s perfect aura can make up for The Acclaimed being colder than a Yeti cooler at a Luke Bryan concert in northern New Hampshire. While they are next in line for a shot at the tag titles, they feel galaxies away from that. I don’t buy Caster as someone you can ever take seriously and The Acclaimed being part of Blood & Guts, AEW’s flagship match, is a profoundly confusing decision.
The outcome shouldn’t be in doubt. The Acclaimed already got their fluke win a few weeks ago with no Okada involved. The Continental Champion is not taking an L this early in his AEW career. At least we get to see President Tanahashi and Okada in the ring together for maybe the last time. The crowd should justifiably go nuts for that.
Prediction: The Elite
The Learning Tree (Chris Jericho, Big Bill & Jeff Cobb) vs. Samoa Joe, Hook & Katsuyori Shibata
I will not indulge in this madness for long. Samoa Joe is the real king of kings™ for even agreeing to be involved in this program. Unsurprisingly, this current situation illustrates an incredible lack of self-awareness for Jericho. His faction, as always, is purely self-serving, designed only to keep him on TV and elevate no one other than himself. Miss me with the “Oh, Big Bill gets to show some personality.” This dude was already a Tag Team champion, so this is neither an upgrade nor growth for him. Meanwhile, the other side is at least working toward elevating Hook and attempting to give him actual character growth.
One of these things is not like the other and putting the spotlight on it only drives the point home even more.
Prediction: Joe, Hook & Shibata
MJF vs. Hechicero
MJF is so back. New hair, new body, new Max, right? We’ll see. So far, it’s been more of the same. To be clear, MJF in his current form is an incredible performer. But to get to the level of the all-time greats, adjustments are needed. It’s more fine-tuning as opposed to wholesale changes that will push him into that top tier: the one where the air is thin and the true greats reside.
He certainly has the talent to get there. Everything he needs already exists within him, but every great book has an editor, someone to reign in the misguided notions and focus on the strengths and less extended fourth-wall fracturing promos replete with ‘zingers’ that may pop the crowd for a few seconds only to be forgotten an instant later. We need more of the CM Punk version of Max and less of the four pillars one; more pro wrestler than sports entertainer. That’s when the talk of generational talent will come to bear.
His opponent on Sunday is a good one. More specifically, the goods. Hechicero is it, cats and kittens. A unique and rare mat technician, he’s exactly the type of wrestler who can bring the best out of MJF. Someone who knows exactly who they are in the ring and works in a way that doesn’t allow Max to indulge in some of his worst habits. Hechicero can ground the match and give it structure which is where MJF truly shines. More MJF matches should just get announced and then happen without a six-week-long promo battle. A recent example: his recent very good television match against Rush on Dynamite. I’m excited to see what he can do against a very different type of luchador.
Prediction: MJF
Shingo Takagi vs. Bryan Danielson in an Owen Hart Foundation tournament first round match
This should be a wonderful symphony of violence — not necessarily in a bloody way, but a vicious one. Takagi is an intense, unrelenting striker and a master of controlled brutality. And what needs to be said of the greatest of all time in Danielson? A violent chess master who adjusts his style to attack his opponent’s weaknesses. Chameleon-like in his ability to work any kind of match with any type of opponent, Danielson gets to step in the ring with someone close to a true peer, someone who can match his pace, and push him to the edge of his abilities. But no one is better when pushed to the edge than the American Dragon.
Likely, Danielson will never get to wrestle in the G1, so why not give him a G1-style match on Sunday? Both wrestlers are known for their ability to test the limits of their endurance and deliver matches that are as grueling as they are exhilarating. This is a match that meets the true spirit of the Forbidden Door and is the one I’m most excited about. It’s time for Bryan to win a big match on a big show and this is it.
Prediction: Danielson advances to face PAC
Zack Sabre Jr. vs. Orange Cassidy
The story they’re telling is of a new Cassidy — one without his best friends for the first time in AEW. He never explicitly relied on them to win his matches, but Best Friends were a unit. They supported each other. They celebrated their successes and picked each other up after losses. But the most wholesome and supportive unit in AEW doesn’t exist anymore. Recently, Cassidy has paired up with Kyle O’Reilly and Mark Briscoe, but that isn’t the same. Those are work friends, not real ones. I am very interested in seeing how he would do standing completely alone for the first time.
Few are better at taking a beating – and selling the believability of said beating – than Cassidy. Luckily for us and unfortunately for him, few are better at providing a believable stretching than the bendy man himself. ZSJ was born to play the unwanted interloper. He’s never better than when he gets to go full dickhead mode between the bells and cut odd, fascinating promos outside of them. He has his own vocabulary and in-ring style, entirely unique to him. He should be positioned as the top gaijin for NJPW moving forward. A win here makes too much sense.
Prediction: ZSJ
Jack Perry vs. Konosuke Takeshita vs. Mark Briscoe vs. Dante Martin vs. Lio Rush vs El Phantasmo in a ladder match for the vacant TNT title
All the tea leaves point to Perry walking out of this match with gold around his waist. The evil faction running the company trope works better with everyone strapped up. I wish that wasn’t the case because otherwise, this could be Takeshita’s seventh official coming-out party. The participants in this match are perfect foils for how he best works in smaller, athletic wrestlers that he can throw around and knock out. His match with Darby Allin was my favorite AEW TV match this year, and he has two Darby-sized replacements in Rush and Perry.
Multi-person ladder matches always deliver in AEW and this should be no different. A ripper of a good time with outrageous spots all over the place. I just hope I’m wrong with my prediction.
Prediction: Perry wins the TNT title
TBS Champion Mercedes Mone vs. NJPW Strong Women’s Champion Stephanie Vaquer in a title vs. title match
This could easily steal the whole show. These two wrestled back in May 2023, but a lot has changed since then. Mone overcame a career-threatening injury while Vaquer added championships in two companies while increasing her global reputation. In-ring, these two are about as good as it gets. Mone can make in-ring magic with almost anyone, but when she gets the chance to lock up with someone close to her level, the ceiling does not exist. Vaquer is certainly at that level. Her movements are crisp and sudden, and she’s so fluid in the ring. Mone has to be licking her chops thinking about the wild stuff they can pull off together.
Vaquer’s star may be on the rise, but the Strong belt was made for Mone. It was always designed with her in mind. Giving her an additional championship to parade around with fits. I’ve even talked myself into thinking that her awful theme song adds to how easy it is to dislike her. Song aside, she adds more gold this weekend
Prediction: Mone becomes the champ-champ
AEW Women’s World Champion Toni Storm defends against Mina Shirakawa
Shirakawa has it. That special charisma is instantly clear when she’s on screen. Before Big Business in March, she wrestled Anna Jay in a match for Ring of Honor and it was immediately obvious that she was someone. The music, the presentation, the presence, everything. The live crowd reacted because they knew they were seeing someone worth paying attention to and those reactions carried over to live TV. She moves on screen with the confidence that comes from the comfort of being yourself and owning your character.
Mariah May looms large over this match and for good reason. She is destined to be a top star for as long as she chooses. In many ways, this match is more about her than the title, one she will most likely be challenging for at All In. AEW is frequently criticized for their booking and rightfully so. Too often it is short-sighted and changes without warning.
But credit must be given where it’s due. From the moment May stepped on screen in AEW last November, she began a steady climb up to the top of the card and toward her inevitable crowning moment. It was a dedicated and deliberate attempt to build someone into a main event-level star. Guess what? It’s working. Toni and Mira may be wrestling, but all eyes should be on Mariah. She brings the intrigue to this program, and she is next in line.
Prediction: Storm retains
IWGP World Champion Jon Moxley defends against Tetsuya Naito
In a world that increasingly lacks certainty, it’s nice to be reminded that it can still exist. Few things are as certain as Moxley performing on a big stage. He is one of the most consistently bankable big-match performers of this decade. He has become an incredible all-around performer while staying true to who he is. With so much of modern wrestling being consumed with creating fleeting GIFs or ephemeral moments at the expense of all else, Moxley is anything but that. The man is, simply, a wrestler. We are all better off as fans because of him.
Surely, Naito is popping the t-shirt off for this one? Curiously minimized from the first two Forbidden Door events (he only wrestled in a six-man tag last year and you know he kept the top on for that), he gets a big-time spot on this year’s show. He can’t move like he used to, but he’s smart with his matches, saving the big bumps and big spots for the most important moments and an IWGP title match is certainly that. If Moxley wasn’t based in the States, I’d think a longer title run is in his future. That changes Sunday.
Prediction: Naito gets his belt back
AEW World Champion Swerve Strickland defends against Will Ospreay
For something that should feel like a big deal, something is missing here. There have been good individual moments in the lead up, but it hasn’t all come together. Strickland says one thing but his actions show the opposite. He bragged that even if he loses the title, he’s still an entertainer, a mogul, a podcaster (lol), so he’d be fine. That’s all a strange thing for the World champion to admit.
But when Ospreay touched the title for the first time, he warned him not do it again. When Ospreay touched it for the second time, he paid for it. So which is it? We could generously interpret this as a man in conflict, but this is pro wrestling and it’s rarely that deep.
What did work was Strickland bringing up Ospreay’s family. It would be great if Strickland becomes the guy who terrorizes happy families like Christian Cage does to people without fathers. He already broke into Hangman Page’s house and threatened a newborn. Why wouldn’t he come after another healthy family unit? Lean into this! Prove to us that the pursuit of greatness has changed him. Make everything personal because the title is all that matters. Forget all the extra stuff. Become obsessed with the title above all else. Make the championship everything and the only thing.
It’s only a matter of time before Ospreay wins the big title. He is so clearly the guy in AEW now and going forward. This is their new Kenny Omega: the person who has the biggest matches on the biggest shows and receives tremendous critical acclaim. Some might not like it and his particular brand of wrestling, but AEW and most of the audience sure do. Health permitting, this is a top-of-the-card performer taking AEW through the latter half of the decade.
But it’s not time for Billy Two Belts quite yet. A babyface coming into a company and winning the title instantly is a story not worth telling. There must be some struggle, some challenges to overcome before winning it all. I’m not talking about a Cody Rhodes-level finishing of the story, but he needs to fail at least once before his ultimate triumph.
Prediction: Swerve retains