AEW x NJPW Forbidden Door predictions & preview: The incredible greatness of being

The following is an opinion-based preview and reflects the views of the author.

AEW x NJPW Forbidden Door has redefined the modern possibilities within the wrestling industry, standing as a beacon of innovation, a true showcase of both the art and sport of professional wrestling.

There’s been some hand wringing about how there are no stories for this show, but that misses the point about what this show actually is: a pure wrestling exhibition with a kaleidoscope of talent from across the globe. It’s supposed to be fun and wrestling is supposed to be fun. Yes, having compelling stories makes everything better, but an annual spectacle like this is good for wrestling and great for the viewer.

Sunday is a jam-packed show with 14 matches counting the pre-show. Let’s jam through them and make some predictions. 

Editor’s note: This preview was submitted prior to AEW Collision.

Blackpool Combat Club (Jon Moxley, Claudio Castagnoli & Wheeler Yuta), Konosuke Takeshita and Shota Umino vs. The Elite (Young Bucks and Hangman Page), Eddie Kingston & Tomohiro Ishii

The saga of The Elite and Blackpool Combat Club continues on, undaunted and unceasing like the flow of time. I’m all for it. It’s just a wonderful blend of styles and wrestling ideologies. The addition of Kingston makes it even more compelling. He removes the governor from the engine. Anything is possible when the Mad King is on the scene (he tried to light Chris Jericho on fire!) He’s the best and it’s so good to see him back.

His return adds a significant amount of intrigue. Always true to form, Kingston hates just about everyone in this match with the exception of Moxley. Though, I do think he and Page would probably get along famously. He loathes the Bucks, can’t tolerate Yuta, and would most likely give up his entire existence to see Castagnoli fail. Spite and pettiness will drive a man to do outrageous things, and we will always appreciate a petty king.

Prediction: The Elite

Owen Hart Foundation tournament men’s quarterfinal: CM Punk vs. Satoshi Kojima

This is not the place for my New Yorker-length essay about Punk. The tl;dr version: Punk being back is objectively good for business and each side of this feud is acting all sorts of childish. Punk’s press conference was petulant teenager behavior and absolutely warranted punishment, but to make it seem like the guy committed kayfabe murder is a bridge too far. 

One of the best parts of the whole thing has been the passive aggressive social media posts and veiled references. It drives the Internet Wrestling Community™ insane, and anything that does that is aces in my book. (Just look at this thread.) Punk gave everyone PTSD! Punk should go to jail! I often wonder and worry about these people and if they have meaningful relationships.

But yeah, Punk didn’t come back to lose to Kojima.

Prediction: Punk

Adam Cole vs. “Filthy” Tom Lawlor

It was great to see Cole look like Cole when he wrestled MJF earlier this month. His match against Chris Jericho was…concerning to say the absolute least. Free from the smothering clutches and stench of that, Cole was back in the form that made him The Guy in every promotion he has ever been in. Healthy and primed for a summer run at the top of the card, its time to see if Cole can get it done as a top draw.

Far be it for me to besmirch my occasional co-worker — we have never met, for the record — but this is just another chance for Cole to prove his groove is all the way back. Lawlor is legitimately great and this spot is long overdue. Hopefully. he gets to show out a bit and is on our TV more regularly.

Prediction: Cole

Chris Jericho, Sammy Guevara & Minoru Suzuki vs Sting, Darby Allin & Tetsuya Naito

It’s 2023. You have a Nintendo 64 with Goldeneye. You just ordered a pizza with extra cheese. Chris Jericho, Minoru Suzuki, and Sting are sharing a ring. You don’t know it right now, but this is as good as life will ever get.

This match is purely about vibes. Some of the best and worst vibes in all of wrestling are going to be in the ring at the same time. Suzuki? All-time vibes guy. He’s mastered the art of doing as little as possible in the ring and still getting massive reactions. Sting? One of the original vibe-based pro wrestlers. The man hung out in the rafters for months just vibing; never wrestling, just hanging out with some scaffolding and having the crowd frothing.

Meanwhile, Guevara has anti-vibes. The guy got booed when he announced that he’s going to be a girl dad. Guevara as a babyface is a spectacular, futile, failure and the sooner this odd experiment ends the better.

Sting hasn’t lost in AEW and in all likelihood won’t until his retirement match.

Prediction: Sting, Allin & Naito

AEW Women’s Champion Toni Storm defends against Willow Nightingale

Nightingale is it. Regardless of the circumstances around her becoming the inaugural NJPW Strong Women’s Champion, she carries that belt. She was seen as good enough to wrestle Mercedes Mone for the title and is more than good enough to carry the mantle. Her steady growth over the past few years has made her ready for this spot — by far the biggest of her career to date. She’s handled every challenge thrown her way to this point, and is just going to keep getting better. A perfect example of having the unteachable — an organic, meaningful connection to the crowd.

Storm playing the slimy heel is the perfect contrast to Willow’s bubbliness. Storm is far too good of a wrestler to be saddled with all of The Outcasts’ shenanigans. Make no mistake that this is one of the best women wrestlers in the world. She just has a suboptimal gimmick right now. But when the bell rings, and its winning time, Storm always performs.

Prediction: Storm retains

AEW International Champion Orange Cassidy defends against Katsuyori Shibata, Daniel Garcia and Zack Sabre Jr. in a four-way

I thought I was dreaming when this match was announced. Like the main event, this is a match that could only be imagined. A few years ago, Cassidy was a gimmick wrestler on the independents, Garcia was still finding his way on those same indies, and Shibata still had a broken brain. ZSJ was out there doing the damn thing, but still hadn’t fully found his lane as the cocky British dickhead. Now he has fully embraced who he is: the bendy man, the long mover, and the funniest interview in pro wrestling.

Cassidy keeps on keeping on with his incredible run of title defenses. Every time I think he’s going to drop the belt, I am proven to be, as always, spectacularly wrong. I am now convinced he is the only champion in the company that Tony Khan truly loves and trusts. He puts him on TV every week, pairs him with diverse, interesting talents, and lets him cook. Since I think he’ll retain on Sunday, he’s absolutely going to lose.

Prediction: Cassidy retains

IWGP World Champion SANADA defends against “Jungle Boy” Jack Perry (w/ Hook)

No amount of handsome can make this match compelling for me. Perry still hasn’t found it on the microphone, and no amount of swearing on live TV will mask that. Until he becomes a real three-dimensional, interesting character, his ceiling is right where he is now: good but not great and entirely forgettable in a sea of far more compelling personalities.

SANADA finally finished his story…and this is his reward? Last year, the NJPW title match had Jay White, Okada, and the Adams (Cole and Page). So you go from four main event-level performers (though your personal tastes may vary) to this? Being a small player in a desperate Perry heel turn seems awful and unbefitting of the NJPW World Champion.

Prediction: SANADA

AEW World Champion MJF defends against Hiroshi Tanahashi

Even in his rapidly breaking down state, Tanahashi is still deserving of our full attention.

At times, it’s painful to watch him try to move on his ever deteriorating knees. He was moving significantly better last year at Forbidden Door, but even then it was clear he was gutting through it. His knees and body might fail him, but his wrestling mind is as sharp as ever. Unrivaled at pacing a match, understanding the moment and controlling a crowd, Tanahashi could have a compelling match with a tree stump. We should enjoy seeing as much of we can of a true living legend that has done everything at the highest possible level, because there’s a time coming soon where we won’t be able to.

Even though MJF can do almost everything in the ring, he’s at his best when he does less. Working with someone like Tanahashi can hopefully bring out the best in MJF and quell some of the egregious self-indulgence that can make its way into his matches. Tanahashi’s limitations will prevent his worst qualities from peeking out. MJF has talked a lot of noise about not watching NJW, calling it a glorified indie, etc. But he’s a student of wrestling history and he is all too aware that Tanahashi is a living legend. This might not be the best match on the card, but there will be one or two moments where Tanahashi makes us believe he can win, like he always does.

Prediction: MJF

NJPW U.S. Champion Kenny Omega defends against Will Ospreay

You, dear reader, have already decided if you’re going to like this match. You decided the moment it was announced. Most likely, you decided before it was announced. People either love everything these two do, or find it overwrought, overdone, and entirely too much. From a purely bell-to-bell perspective, I tend to lean with the former. I am a fan of two grown-up theater kids showing incredible displays of athleticism. I enjoy it!

Like most people, I thought their match at January’s Wrestle Kingdom was very good. I didn’t think it was the best match I have ever seen, but it certainly was an athletic spectacle. I thought it would have been even better if it was 15 minutes shorter. The best thing that could happen to this match is if it has a 20-minute time limit and is somewhere in the middle.

Both Omega and Ospreay only know how to go full tilt in big matches. They are both driven by the desire to be seen as the best and to be the measuring stick for future generations. There’s more juice to this story and it won’t end on Sunday.

Prediction: Will Ospreay

Bryan Danielson vs. Kazuchika Okada

The term “dream match” is certainly thrown out far too loosely, but this match actually feels like a dream. The steps to get here were unfathomable.

Six years ago, the odds of this match happening would have been infinitesimal. No casino in the world would have even taken a bet. Danielson was still in WWE and had just made his return after a two-year retirement. AEW was just a glimmer in The Elite’s eyes and not even a kernel in the mind of Tony Khan. Now, in 2023, in a world where the second and third largest wrestling companies in the world work together, anything is possible — even this.

The best big match performer of modern times is still somehow just 35. Okada is doing his best work in years, playing the role of the salty, grizzled young veteran. He’s been making it look easy for years and you can argue that he’s just entering his prime. Most wrestlers peak and find out who they really are in their 30s. If what he’s done up until now was him just getting started, the next phase of his career could be legendary.

This is the match, though. The Match. It exemplifies the meaning of the entire show: an exhibition of greatness. Bryan Danielson is the greatest wrestler I have ever seen, one with an unlimited wrestling vocabulary. There is nothing he can’t do in the ring. He hasn’t wrestled since Anarchy in the Arena which makes me think he’s been in the naturopathic version of a hyperbaric time chamber getting ready. He knows how much this match means, and how big it is in the modern history of pro wrestling. He’s going to be ready to put on a historic match with as good of a dance partner as he will ever have. But will his prep be enough? 

Okada lives for the biggest matches in the biggest moments, and few are bigger than this.

Prediction: Okada