AEW Revolution preview & predictions: Heat checks

Editor’s Note: The following is an opinion-based preview and reflects the opinion of the author

The start of 2023 has been a mixed bag for AEW. The in-ring product has been an undeniable high. They have been giving away pay-per-view caliber matches on free TV on what feels like a weekly basis. The January 11th card alone had Hangman Page vs. Jon Moxley, Bryan Danielson vs. Konosuke Takeshita, and The Elite vs. Death Triangle. Is that a good show? Because it seems like a good show.

From bell to bell, the product has been largely spectacular. The problem? A lot of pro wrestling happens outside the ropes. Purely relying on good matches to carry a show leaves almost no room for error. If there happens to be a dud of a card, it shows up in the ratings.

Even with their outstanding in-ring, AEW still feels like an 18-wheeler driving down an icy road. When the road is straight, it’s smooth sailing. The matches are great, the promos are on point, and the storylines are cohesive. But sometimes Tony Khan gets a little wild behind the wheel, the road turns, and the truck starts to wobble.

Three years into their existence, they are still consistently cooling off new, hot acts in strange deference to more established talent. Jamie Hayter getting second or third billing to whatever this Toni Storm/Saraya thing is has to be one of the more confusing things in recent memory. Ricky Starks is mired in an exhaustive, months-long program with Chris Jericho. Jeff Jarrett is still getting weekly segments.

These kinds of self-inflicted skids have been popping up since the company started. So far, they have done a good job steering themselves out of them, but you can only drive on two wheels for so long.

There’s been a lot of ups and downs, a lot of hot and cold. Some of the current feuds work really well while some need to be immediately thrown in the bin. Let’s take a look at the Revolution card, and do a heat check to see how hot or not the matches and feuds are.

Jon Moxley vs. Hangman Page in a Texas Deathmatch

Heat check: Hotter than a Middle Eastern climate

The most compelling match on the card doesn’t have a title attached to it. We, as wrestling fans, have had our worm-addled brains conditioned to believe that the only things that matter are championships. Part of that is because the deplorable ‘rings culture’ has bled over from traditional sports. If reaching the apex, the absolute pinnacle, is the only measure of success, then 99% of us are consistently failing.

This story has no championship implications, it guarantees zero future success. It is simply two dudes with a history that love to fight and it’s the best thing going in AEW.

Hangman and Moxley are the two most real characters in AEW. Most wrestling is built on caricature and largess. Real, actual human beings with actual feelings and actual emotions are not exactly commonplace in wrestling. Since the beginning of AEW, Page has been the most layered and emotionally deep performer in pro wrestling while everything Moxley says or does feels gritty and authentic. His promo on Dynamite this week was excellent and some of the best AEW mic work in months. Both of these guys are special. In a space where authenticity is not always prevalent, or even present, Page and Moxley serve as a refreshing reminder that wrestling can be more than just a spectacle: it can be a platform for genuine human expression.

It’s been a while since Page has been at the top of the card. Whether it was his parental leave or injury-related, he’s been missing from the marquee. It’s time for him to move back up.

Prediction: Hangman Page

Ricky Starks vs. Chris Jericho

Heat check: The steak you grilled but forgot about. It was hot for a while, but you should have eaten it as soon as you could.

Jericho feuds are like Christopher Nolan movies. There’s a great movie (or film, if you’re nasty) in there, but you just have to give up an entire weekend to see it to the end. At their worst, Nolan’s movies are overly long and self-indulgent. They feel bloated and meandering. If they were 20% shorter, the would be so much more enjoyable.

Jericho’s feuds are the same way. They feel like a big deal because he still has the star power that comes with a resume like his. But my god, do they go on forever. The audience might still sing “Judas” every time he comes to the ring, but a sing-a-long is all it is. It’s just muscle memory — a Pavlovian response without real engagement. Sometimes If Jericho did less, he would feel more like the big deal he still is, and the legend he will be remembered as.

In this house, we are never going to complain about Starks regularly being on TV and cashing that PPV check. He’s a few degrees cooler than he was a few months ago, but the crowd is still behind him. His unique charisma really connects and man, the people want this dude to succeed. They want an absolute championship reign. Starks is the total package, the only things stopping him have been outside his control. But it’s all there, and always has been. If not now, when?

Prediction: Ricky Starks

Christian Cage vs. “Jungle Boy” Jack Perry in The Final Burial

Heat check: a low simmer

Cage is a big deal and is presented as a big deal. That’s not a mistake. The clothes and the promos are dripping with polish — the kind that comes with being on TV for the better part of 25 years. He’s been on TV almost as long as Jack from the Jungle has been alive, and the experience difference is stark. 

Jungle Boy is 80% of a really, really good thing, but he’s still finding his voice and character. Experience and reps are all he’s missing. He’s got a natural connection with the fans, the in-ring, and the overall presentation is coming along. If the rough edges get smoothed out, it’s much easier to see the future AEW envisions for him.

This started as a standard no holds barred match but got changed to ‘The Final Burial’ on Rampage. I’m assuming someone realized that no holds barred was too close to a Texas Deathmatch and they made the switch. It’s a welcome one, because the line Jungle Boy delivered about his dad was the best thing he’s done in AEW. This went from being fairly by-the-book to something much more intriguing. This program ends dramatically on Sunday, and could serve as a launching pad for a full-on Jack Perry singles run

Prediction: Jungle Boy

AEW Trios Champions The Elite defend against the House of Black

Heat check: San Diego in May. Just what I want it to be.

The trios titles were made for The Elite. There was a good amount of eye rolling when the titles were announced, assuming they were just another opportunity for Kenny Omega and the Young Bucks to put themselves over. And sure, they’re the champs, but all they’ve done is make people look incredible along the way. The series of matches with Death Triangle was a spectacle (though admittedly a bit too long). They have made Top Flight look like legitimate stars. And none of this is new. For as much crap as The Elite get for patting themselves on the back and being general goobers, they will be remembered as three of the best to ever do it.

Malakai Black can come out every week and say, “As I gazed into the darkness of the desolate mansion, I felt a presence watching me from within, a reminder that some secrets are best left undiscovered” and I’ll vigorously nod yes and want more. But I am not everyone, and sooner or later, the House of Black needs to do something. This qualifies as something. Winning the trios titles qualifies as a big something. A win would establish them as a credible threat and not just three guys with immaculate, spooky vibes.

Prediction: House of Black

AEW Tag Team Champions The Gunns defend against The Acclaimed, Jeff Jarrett & Jay Lethal, and Danhausen & Orange Cassidy in a four-way

Heat Check: Spring in New England. It’s a little all over the place, but surely better things are ahead, right?

There is a fun podcast called ‘Is This Good?’ where they predictably talk about whether or not things are good. One of the first episodes was about whether or not vanity plates are good (they are not). It was fun, it was light, I enjoyed myself. So now I ask, are The Gunns good? My answer? Not really. Austin Gunn is, begrudgingly, very funny. He’s got good facial reactions, comedic timing, and kind of just gets it. His brother does not have any of those things, but he does have a weird tattoo. 

I understand why they won the titles. A shocking win, instant heat, etc, etc, etc. It was a huge risk having the hottest homegrown act in the company lose their titles to a team so unproven and unliked, but color me…intrigued? Interested? I’m not sure what I am, but at least I’m not apathetic. I at least want to see what The Acclaimed are like trying to get back what they lost.

There was a time where the AEW tag division was the best part of the company. The Lucha Bros, The Young Bucks, FTR, Kenny Omega & Adam Page, and Swerve in Our Glory were all champions. If someone said there would be a four-way match for the titles and not only were none of those teams involved, but Jarrett & Lethal were the top contenders, your brain would be scrambled eggs. From historically good tag teams to Jarrett & Lethal getting a title shot at a PPV, life really does come at you fast, I guess. Shout out to Jeff though. The ultimate carnie has found himself at the pay window yet again.

Not everything is doom and gloom, however. The Acclaimed rise to the occasion every time their number is called. Cassidy is wildly popular and a proven big match performer. And my personal biases aside, the people love Danhausen. They simply adore the little demon man. I rolled my eyes at the inclusion of good ol’ Double J, but the dude is a Hall of Fame heat magnet who knows how to work a crowd. I can’t help but think this will wind up being better than the sum of its parts, I just have no idea who wins. And hey, maybe FTR shows up.

Prediction: Gunns

AEW Women’s Champion Jamie Hayter defends against Saraya and Ruby Soho in a three-way

Heat check: Room temperature water. Hayter is the only thing preventing this from being an ice floe adrift at sea.

What, exactly, is this Saraya/Toni Storm pairing supposed to do? I mean, I know what it’s supposed to do, but what is the point? It took a Herculean effort to make Storm uninteresting and take away screen time from the most popular woman on the roster, but Saraya pulled it off. The women’s roster is littered with talent but the A1 story, and really the only story, involves two wrestlers spray painting the letter L on people. When this is the only spotlight the women get, the whole world can see how frigid this is.

Hayter has been put on the back burner and Jade Cargill is relegated to Rampage squash matches, all in service of Saraya getting a chance to move 50% slower than everyone else. The hate she has been getting certainly is way too much, but it’s clear she’s still shaking off a significant amount of expected ring rust. This whole thing has been muddled at best and disastrous at worst. If you squint hard enough you can kind of, sort of, maybe see a world where Storm and Saraya make something good out of this somehow, but I just don’t think there’s any blood in that stone, unfortunately.

Hopefully, Saraya can keep up with Hayter and Soho because they can both fly around the ring. This smells like a schmoz-filled title change, but I can’t bring myself to make that prediction. Jamie Hayter forever.

Prediction: Hayter retains

TNT Champion Samoa Joe defends against Wardlow

Heat check: A tea kettle desperately trying to reach full boil

Joe is an unquestioned legend and AEW certainly does not exist without him. He’s one of the wrestlers who led the independent wrestling boom of the early 2000s and his match with Kenta Kobashi is still the best I have ever seen. It opened my eyes to a different style of wrestling. To that point I was a sweet summer child, thinking that WWE was the father, son, and holy spirit of pro wrestling. But then I watched those two Mad Max war rigs beat the hell out of each other and things changed. My eyes were starting to open. I didn’t know a match could even be wrestled that way, let alone make me feel the way it did. You can watch the match with your eyes closed and still feel everything that’s happening. The crowd provides the play-by-play. It’s a beautiful and perfect spectacle of pro wrestling.

Joe was doing this 20 years ago and is still at the top of the game. The King of Television character is incredible and he should never stop doing it. And try as he might, Wardlow isn’t on his level right now. He’s just lost in Joe’s gravity. AEW has tried to have their own Build Back Better plan with him, but it isn’t happening. He was surface of the sun levels of hot after squashing MJF at last year’s Double or Nothing, but since then, our man has been taking an extended cold plunge. He was in trouble the second he went after the TNT title and not the top prize; a decision that didn’t make sense then and makes less sense now. Someone having natural momentum and heat like that is rare — it’s lightning in a bottle. There was something special at some point, but is it still there? AEW is still trying to figure that out, and figure out a way to put that lightning back in the bottle. It just might take finding Mjollnir to actually make it happen.

Joe is firing on all cylinders right now. Even though the TNT title can play hot potato, this is no time to take it off of him. All hail the King of Television, long may he reign.

Prediction: Samoa Joe

AEW World Champion MJF defends against Bryan Danielson in a 60-minute Iron Man match

Heat Check: Hot

Picasso said “Others have seen what is and asked why. I have seen what could be and asked why not.” Why can’t the best wrestler in the world be 5’10″? Why can’t technical wrestling be wildly exciting? There are other short guys good at wrestling. The independents are flooded with them. But with Bryan, we’re seeing something special. We’re seeing a blizzard in the Sahara, the Sun orbit the Earth. MJF may call himself a generational talent, but Bryan Danielson is once in a lifetime.

Compare him to the “other” best technical wrestler of the current generation, Zack Sabre Jr. ZSJ is a fantastic wrestler and performer, but, as always, there are levels to this, and Danielson has that extra something that you can’t be taught. He wrestles matches in front of 15,000 people in a sold-out arena like he’s in front of 200 in a local auditorium. He makes us feel like he’s wrestling just for us. Each match and each move individually catered. John Cena makes everyone feel the same thing. Danielson makes everyone feel something different. That’s why he’s the greatest of all time.

MJF is everything he says he is: a snake, the devil, a generational talent, all of it. He is undeniably great. MJF, sometimes, cuts some questionable promos. Both things can be true at the same time. I missed seeing the car crash promo live, but wrestling Twitter was buzzing that MJF had dropped another classic. When I finally watched, I thought there had to be another promo on the show that I missed. That was it? That was what the buzz was about? An edgelord adjacent promo was being hailed as something special. Has time really passed me by? Dear readers, it has not. Just because someone is transcendentally talented, does not mean everything they do is transcendent. Steph Curry has duds, too.

This will be the biggest test of Maxwell’s young career and a huge ask of the audience. AEW PPVs are never short affairs and this match might bleed into early-Monday morning. All the East Coast dads are weeping with me. But if anyone can keep a crowd hot for an hour, it’s these two. Danielson has already done an hour with Hangman Page which is on the short list for the best matches in AEW history. 

MJF’s matches are more about the story rather than the moves, so this might be the perfect vehicle for him, too. As much as I would love AEW Champion Bryan Danielson, I just don’t see a way MJF loses his first big title defense.

Prediction: MJF