AEW Revolution preview & predictions: Back to the future

Image: AEW

The following is an opinion-based preview and reflects that of the author and not our website.

AEW ended 2024 on a down note. The loss of Bryan Danielson into pseudo-retirement left a yawning void. The person who anchored their programming for a full year was gone. In his place was a once promising heel faction that is now milquetoast at best; a group of people who attempted murder multiple times on television somehow became run of the mill heels, their matches full of interference and unsatisfying finishes instead of company-defining violence.

Compounded with the fact that there was no promise of a David to topple this wanna be-Goliath, AEW felt adrift. But then, a funny thing happened. They got back to basics. They remembered what they were built on: killer in-ring action with interesting enough stories to support it. It’s like a lightbulb went off, they realized the wealth of talent on the roster, and leaned into it.

Revolution is, in many ways, the future. There are young wrestlers up and down the card that would be World champions in any company. MJF (28), Hangman Page (33), Swerve Strickland (34), Will Ospreay (31), Kyle Fletcher (26), Konosuke Takeshita (29) and Mercedes Mone (33) represent, frankly, an appalling collection of talent. Any number of them can be the face of the company. Blending this youth with the still valuable experience of the older talents on the roster (Samoa Joe, Cope, Christian Cage, etc.) is how a company grows exponentially. Over-indexing on the veterans is how they stagnate.

Whether it’s Tony Khan taking a heavier role in day-to-day creative, Kenny Omega returning or wrestlers just finding their groove, AEW has emerged from the ashes of 2024 with a promising year ahead. A good year is more important now than ever with WWE being hotter than a Middle Eastern climate. This card is a great start to their PPV year with an on-paper lineup that looks as good as anything they’ve ever run.

Let’s preview Sunday’s show (8 PM Eastern main card from Los Angeles, California on PPV):

MJF vs. Hangman Adam Page

MJF said it himself: Hangman is the main character of AEW. I’d take it a step further and say that they both fill that role: the man the crowd loves to hate and the man the crowd loves to love. Page has proven to be one of the most versatile performers in wrestling, able to coax reactions out of the audience regardless of how his character is aligned. Connection like that is a gift and his happens to be a transcendent one, aided by playing three-dimensional characters.

He does not live in a linear space and is never a bad guy just ‘because.’ There are justifiable reasons for everything he does. Whether we agree with them is a matter of our respective codes of ethics, but nothing he’s done has been unfounded. His descent into madness started because someone broke into his house and threatened his family. That does something to a person. It transforms them. It transformed him into what he is now and what he’s always been at his core: the heart of AEW.

The realism of his performance and the subsequent connection it provides leads to what we always want: immersion. The goal of watching anything performative is not to ignore it or wonder what’s happening on our phones. Rather, it’s the opposite. We yearn to connect to it and feel something. We don’t want to think of anything else other than what we see on screen or in the arena. When Hangman is on that screen, he is the moment and the crowd hangs on every word and action.

His opponent in this match is his opposite as a performer. Where Hangman leans into gray areas and non-traditional wrestling roles, MJF plays the tried and true hits. When engaged and interested, he’s as good a heel as there is. When he indulges in his bad habits (lame insults and over-reliance on ‘the real world’) he becomes much less so.

But one thing is true with MJF: he raises his game to meet his dance partner where they are. With Hangman operating at a top level, MJF has had no choice but to match him and match him he has. This is as invigorated as Max has felt in quite some time. He could sink his teeth into this program and it’s shown in the quality of results. This is a match with nothing on the line, but it’s important because MJF and Page made it that way.

Prediction: Page

Ricochet vs. Swerve Strickland in a World title number one contender’s match

Prince Nana added weight to this. What otherwise could have been a paint-by-numbers program has introduced the ideas of friendship, loss, and legacy. It’s easy to label Nana as a sidecar to Swerve’s incredible act, but he’s much more. He’s so ingrained in the universe of Swerve’s character that we can lose sight of him. But whenever he’s been called upon for more, he has shined. His promo on the February 26th Dynamite has stayed with me. He showed his pain and how deeply he’s hurt by losing his robe.

It’s so important to him that he’s willing to walk away from something that’s brought him such fulfillment and success. This isn’t a cheesy breakup angle; this is about someone who is hurting and seeking help from a friend. They have fought through challenges together, struggled, and reached the peak as a unit. What defines a great friend is the ability to selflessly uplift each other. Nana’s done that for Swerve and now it’s time for Swerve to help him. 

Ricochet has been unlocked as a heel. He’s always performed best when he’s cocky, and he’s always been able to do it. The smiling ‘happy to be here’ persona doesn’t resonate, doesn’t work, and hasn’t for years in wrestling. The tried and true heel tactics still work, but the Hulk Hogan/John Cena style of pure good guy rarely does. You can’t just smile and be happy to be there. It’s boring and has been done hundreds of times.

In modern wrestling, a character needs depth to thrive. Ricochet realized the crowd doesn’t love him like they used to and it changed him. As a result, he became so much more interesting. A geek with an edge is a tough thing to sell, but Ricochet has done it and developed into a valuable player for AEW. 

As good as the turn has been, it still needs time to marinate. It’s not something that feels like a main event level act just yet. What does? The return of the Most Dangerous Man in AEW. The World title picture needs life, and Swerve is just the man to provide it. 

Prediction: Swerve

Will Ospreay vs. Kyle Fletcher in a steel cage match

Fletcher’s growth over the last year has been stratospheric. He’s taken to being a heel better than anyone could have expected. Instead of filling the space in matches with more moves and more action — things he is preternaturally gifted at — he is filling them with less. By taking fewer opportunities to show his impressive skill and using the space to pose and preen, he’s denying the crowd something they want.

To temper oneself by suppressing a gift that less than one percent of people have is tremendous restraint for someone raised in the ‘moment making’ era of wrestling. Fletcher can do everything in the ring, but by deciding to do less and focusing on the space between, he is learning a lesson that can sometimes take decades and is positioning himself for a potentially historic career.

In some ways, he is learning the right lessons from Ospreay’s career. The move to AEW has certainly helped curb some of his worst habits. Far less prone to overwhelming bouts of self-indulgence and forgetful selling, Ospreay is an example of someone who too often finds himself trying to create something momentous at the expense of something memorable. For better or for worse, he is a pro wrestling maximalist even when the situation doesn’t require it.

If I come off as consistently critical of such an acclaimed and talented wrestler, it is because there are so few with his physical gifts. Those with the most talent face the most scrutiny.  I just want less, and subsequently more, from him.

A loss for Ospreay means nothing, but a win for Fletcher means everything. He gets the biggest one of his career on Sunday.

Prediction: Fletcher

AEW World Tag Team Champions The Hurt Syndicate (Bobby Lashley & Shelton Benjamin) defend against The Outrunners (Turbo Floyd & Truth Magnum)

From day one in AEW, the Hurt Syndicate have been stars. Most ex-WWE acts struggle after an initial push before finding something that works with the aforementioned Ricochet being a perfect example. Not Bobby, Shelton and MVP. They came in with an established act that should never have ended. From presentation to promos to in-ring, the Hurt Syndicate does everything at such a high level while bringing much needed fresh air to the tag team division.

Historically, AEW’s tag division has been full of high work-rate champions. Having a physical, bruising team like the Hurt Business on top changes the dynamic for the better. 

The Outrunners are never going to be the best tag team in the world, but they are absolutely going to be someone’s favorite tag team and there is value in that. Acts like this are necessary for a well-rounded company. Not everyone can be a top act, but that doesn’t mean they shouldn’t try to be fully developed characters that connect with the audience. Low-card, fan-favorite acts round out a roster and The Outrunners are exactly what they should be.

Prediction: The Hurt Syndicate retains

AEW International Champion Konosuke Takeshita defends against Kenny Omega

The return of a modern god of pro wrestling cannot be wasted. Omega almost transcends description at this point. Being on the shelf for over a year and returning with that match with Gabe Kidd at Wrestle Kingdom? What an absolute freak. A legendary wrestling sicko.

The days of him having classic matches on the regular are likely over. There are still bullets in the chamber, but they aren’t going to fire as frequently. He’s still fully capable of having classic matches, and he gave us proof of concept on January 4th. It was just a different kind of special. The once remarkable athleticism and explosiveness were lessened, but the match remained captivating. Omega has a unique wrestling mind, one that knows how to structure, how to build to an inflection point, and how to take us on a ride home. As his ability to drop jaws with pure physical prowess lessens, his ability to capture minds, and hearts, remains. This is the transition of an all-time great to the next stage of his career.

This match needs to be different than the ones they’ve had before. Omega is not the athlete that Takeshita is at this point in his career, and he knows it. He’s never doubted his capabilities as an all-time performer, but he’s lost to Takeshita twice already and knows what a third loss means. He desperately needs to prove that even in this new season of his career, he’s the better wrestler. Trading bombs and huge moves with Big Soup is the recipe for an unwinnable disaster, but Omega has forgotten more about wrestling than most people will ever know. His path to a win involves using more of his mind and less of his body.

There are still two PPVs to get through, but the money match at All In is with Okada, ideally with belts on the line (hopefully with some kind of unification). The build to that should start at Revolution.

Prediction: Kenny Omega wins the title

AEW Continental Champion Kazuchika Okada defends against Brody King

This might sound odd, but I wish this were the main event of a Dynamite rather than here. Top to bottom, this card is loaded, so much so that this runs the risk of being lost. No shade to either of these cats intended. King is long overdue for some singles shine and Okada is Okada — one of the best wrestlers of this century. I worry there will be too much of the same. But then again, if Okada flips the ‘big match’ switch, this could steal the whole show. 

Here’s the list of wrestlers who’ve beaten Okada clean, one-on-one in AEW: Bryan Danielson (2x) and Kyle Fletcher. How beautiful would it be to have Brody on that list? In a match with Ricochet, Okada, and Strickland, he was the one getting the chants and biggest reactions. The crowd has loved him forever and he deserves the opportunity to bathe in their appreciation with success and gold. Unfortunately, there are probably bigger plans for Okada that require a title around his waist.

Prediction: Okada retains

TBS Champion Mercedes Mone defends against Momo Watanabe

The doubters have been silenced. The haters continue shouting into the void as they know no other way. Through it all, Mone sits atop the wrestling world. Her matches with Kris Statlander were remarkable. Her match with Hazuki was sensational. She tossed Harley Cameron into her backpack and carried her to a solid match at Grand Slam Australia. Few wrestlers are better at big match wrestling.

She is both a floor lifter and ceiling raiser, and is a talent that will be appreciated far more once she’s done. There isn’t much she hasn’t accomplished in wrestling. One of the few things left is a run towards the AEW Women’s World Championship. Mone vs Toni Storm for both belts at All In sounds like a (no pun intended) money match to me. To get there, she needs to keep her title. 

Prediction: Mone retains

AEW Women’s World Champion Toni Storm defends against Mariah May in a Hollywood Ending match

This is the real main event and what should be the final chapter in a 12+ month story. Regardless of your feelings about “Timeless,” it’s one of the more impressive character performances in modern wrestling. A gimmick that should have expired long ago, she has somehow kept it fresh and relevant. This would have been fodder for eye rolls and channel changes in the hands of less dedicated and weaker performers. In a sea of expected and flat characters, this continues to stand out as something different and always worth the time. 

May’s run up to the title was a combination of great writing and great performance. The same writing that brought her success undermined her time as champion. She was rarely given anything substantial to do, and her character devolved into a stereotypical ‘mean champion’ trope. It often felt, correctly I might add, that she was waiting for Storm to come back around. May needs a soft reset to get away from the only meaningful program she’s been involved with in AEW. Her future as a performer remains as bright as ever. She just needs some time and some tweaks. 

A Hollywood Ending match promises finality and even though all signs point to Storm retaining, is this the end of the “Timeless” character? It’s impossible to separate “Timeless” (I am so tired of typing this) Toni and May from each other. Their stories are so intertwined, is it reasonable to expect that one can’t exist without the other? The most interesting outcome sees Storm retain, May get a break, and “Timeless” Toni retires to Sunset Boulevard – this show is in Los Angeles, after all – and Storm reinvents herself once again.

Prediction: Storm retains

AEW World Champion Jon Moxley defends against Cope

An unfortunate truth about this match is that a clean outcome isn’t satisfying. Not a ringing endorsement of the main event scene! The Death Riders are an unsuccessful experiment. Extending Moxley’s run with the title is just kicking the can down the road. A 51-year-old Cope being the one to overcome the heel champion is equally empty. The intrigue lies in the gray. Credit to AEW for having multiple outside options that impact the main event’s outcome. 

I rarely do in-depth fantasy booking in this space, but indulge my thinking for a moment. This week’s Dynamite introduced both Jay White and Wheeler Yuta as additional ingredients in the de facto main event. A White heel turn could not have been telegraphed any harder, to the point it feels like a red herring. We’ve also been hit over the head with the idea that Moxley is truly all alone. The heel all alone, but the face with someone in their corner for support? I wonder what could happen there.

Imagine a world where Cope is close to winning, White tries to cost him the match, Yuta stops him, but Moxley retains. This gives everyone something more interesting to do. White is properly aligned as a heel and can have a serious program with Cope. Yuta splinters The Death Riders while Strickland can be the one to take down Moxley at April’s Dynasty. I don’t know how likely this is, but I’d leave Revolution feeling better about where the top title is.

Prediction: Moxley retains