AEW Double or Nothing preview & predictions: You, me and Anarchy

Image: AEW

This is an opinion-based preview and reflects that of the author and not the website.

Last month’s AEW Dynasty show kicked off the road to All In Texas with Sunday’s Double or Nothing (8 PM Sunday from Glendale, Arizona, on pay-per-view) putting us on the home stretch. As always, the on-paper matchups for DoN are exciting and worth watching. Are they as exciting as trusting Tom Cruise one last time? No, but what can be?

Double or Nothing is still well worth our time, attention and dollars. Let’s run through the matches.

AEW Double or Nothing preview & predictions

Will Ospreay vs. Hangman Page in the men’s Owen Hart Foundation finals

This is as excited as I’ve been about a match that didn’t involve Bryan Danielson in quite some time. I remain more interested in any and everything Hangman does more than Ospreay whose entire AEW persona has been about “restoring the feeling” — a corny tagline that should be retired.

Restoring the feeling, as best I can tell, is just wrestling good-to-great matches regularly and if that is the goal, consider it reached. A performer like Ospreay raises both the floor and the ceiling of the company. He can reach heights that few can and even if he’s going at half-speed, that’s raising the level of the other performers. But it’s hard to root for a babyface that seemingly hasn’t overcome anything. Ospreay came into AEW as a top guy and has remained one throughout. He hasn’t struggled or fallen down; he’s just been himself.

And, maybe that’s enough. Maybe Ospreay’s genuine nature is exactly what we need in a world far too full of sly winks and half-truths. He says what he means and does what he says while being among the best in the world. My criticisms aside, this is what a World champion looks like. 

Changes in behaviors and actions lead to true redemption. Has Hangman done anything to deserve redemption yet? Does winning the World championship absolve someone of their sins? He brutally retired Christopher Daniels and short of expressing a bit of remorse for that and his previous actions, he has yet to show complete contrition or that he’s changed. The same singular focus and drive are omnipresent. This is still a man obsessed with his goal above all else. He might want to be someone his son can look at proudly, but make no mistake, this is still a man who would do anything to get his title back. 

Will he, though? Will he be the one to save AEW from Jon Moxley and his Death Riders? I don’t think so. There’s more struggle and more story to be told with Hangman Page. 

Prediction: Will Ospreay

Mercedes Mone vs. Jamie Hayter in the women’s Owen Hart Foundation finals

Jamie Hayter is so back.

It took a minute for her to re-establish her footing after such a long layoff, but she’s back to doing what made her so popular to begin with: hitting people hard. It helps that she was finally given a program worth investing in, both from her perspective and the crowd’s. Few performers in the AEW’s women’s division bring the edge and looming threat of violence in her matches. It’s wonderful seeing her toward the top of the card again.      

In her 14 months in AEW, Mone has proven to be worth every dollar and every cent. She’s had great matches with a litany of opponents and constantly elevated those around her. She’s proven her versatility through programs with two unique performers in Kris Statlander and Harley Cameron. Best of all, she’s still a complete bump freak willing to put her whole body into any move. Combine this with her ever-growing status out of the ring, and AEW has a true crossover star on their hands. This is not a surprise or some lightning bolt of realization. Mercedes has always been this good; she’s finally allowed to do it all the time.

As much as I’d love Hayter to get a win and move back into the main event scene, the future demands something bigger of Mone.

Prediction: Mercedes Mone

Ricochet vs. Mark Briscoe in a stretcher match

Few embrace turning heel in the way that Ricochet has. Too often, an alignment will shift, but the style doesn’t morph to match it. A heel’s goal should not be to pop the crowd and have the spot of the night. It’s the complete opposite. They should be doing everything they can to get the crowd to loathe them and love the babyface. That means stooging and stalling, denying the crowd of big moves and moments. A heel should never be trying for a “holy sh*t” chant but frequently, they seek it out.

Ricochet does not. He has no interest in the liminal space that entices so many modern heels. This, more than anything, is what makes him special. This makes him stand out. Long ago, there were moments of heel Ricochet in PWG, but never on a big stage like this.

Briscoe recently celebrated 25 years in pro wrestling and I hope he has 25 more. An asset to any company, the Chicken Man should have been a staple of weekly television long ago. He’s here to put on solid matches, be entertaining as hell, and get people over, which is exactly what he will do on Sunday.

Prediction: Ricochet

Paragon (Adam Cole, Roderick Strong & Kyle O’Reilly) vs. The Don Callis Family (Kyle Fletcher, Josh Alexander & Konosuke Takeshita)

Here are some things that are true:

• The reunion of Cole, Strong and O’Reilly is a happy story.
• Paragon is an unfortunate name. 
• Cole winning the TNT title and disappearing from television outside commentary is curious. 
• The three best wrestlers in this match are part of The Don Callis Family.
• Within the next 12 months, Kyle Fletcher is winning the World title.

As nice of a story as the Paragon is, they are also the past. This iteration of the Don Callis Family is the future, and they win this easily. Bigger and better things should await as a result.

Prediction: The Don Callis Family  

FTR vs. Daniel Garcia & Nigel McGuinness

I’m stubbornly leaving the light on for Garcia, but I’m worried how much life the bulb has left.

There was a time when he was getting some of the biggest reactions on the show, regardless of his alignment. He is a gifted wrestler and a good enough talker, but AEW tried to pull the trigger with him too late. Momentum would abruptly stop right after it started.. One can only take so much disappointment before they move on which seems to have happened with the audience.

So much needs to go right to make a new wrestling star. They need skill, connection, opportunity, timing, and countless intangibles. Not everything needs to be there at the same time, but the one thing that always does is the timing. Unfortunately, time is fickle and fleeting. There were moments when the stars aligned for Garcia, but somehow the timing was never right. Now he’s an afterthought in someone else’s story.

That story belongs to FTR. Dax and Cash feel alive in their proper alignment as snarling no-gooders. The version of FTR that is just happy to be here because they love wrestling is fine, but has a definitive ceiling on it. Loving ‘this’ and the business always has a shelf life. Now they’re on a mission to seemingly ruin the lives of anyone middle-aged and above. They started with Cope and now have eyes for McGuinness. I fear the worst for my favourite British colour commentator, but at least we’ll get more Oasis on TV. 

Prediction: FTR

AEW Continental Champion Kazuchika Okada defends against “Speedball” Mike Bailey

Big Kazu is on an unsurprising run of solid television title matches, yet something greater calls. He’s built for the biggest matches on the biggest stages and a Big Match this is not. This is, at most, a medium match. Full respect to Bailey, who’s been great since debuting in AEW but he is not getting 25+ minutes with Big Match, non-blonde Okada. His hair was brown and not a “b*tch” was uttered this week. If this is the beginning of a more serious and determined Okada, count me extremely in. He rarely gets pinned and certainly won’t be on Sunday. Kenny Omega awaits. 

Prediction: Okada 

AEW Tag Team Champions The Hurt Syndicate defend against Dustin Rhodes & Sammy Guevara

AEW’s tag team division is lacking serious juice. For so many years, it was a reliable foundation for AEW, but its current state is quite sad. There is perilously little beyond The Hurt Syndicate. The space between them and every other team in the division is a chasm, and that’s reflected in their booking. Since becoming champs, they’ve defended the titles against The Gunns, The Outrunners, The Learning Tree, The Gates of Agony, and Top Flight. These are teams that provide solid depth for a division, not ones that are regularly competing for the title.

I’m not sure there’s an easy solution, either. A potential quick fix would be FTR sliding into a top spot after this show, but a returning Cope likely fills their dance card. Maybe The Young Bucks free up after Anarchy In The Arena, but outside of that, it’s going to take some time to build the tag ranks back up.

Prediction: The Hurt Syndicate

AEW Women’s World Champion Toni Storm defends against Mina Shirakawa

One of the worst things about being a wrestling fan, and existence in general, is the Internet. We cannot escape its blight.

Sometimes, though, it creates moments of delight that make it all worth it. Moments like Tony Khan being extremely online and changing Shirakawa’s new entrance music on the fly because people didn’t it. We’d be a much more honest community if everyone admitted to being terminally online. There is no shame. Our brains have long since smoothed over. That’s why it’s so funny when Triple H claims not to pay attention to what the Internet says. If he had to uninstall Twitter (never X) from his phone, he wouldn’t know what to do with himself. He’d have withdrawals just like the rest of us.

There is proof of concept of this match from last year’s Forbidden Door. The match was fine, largely good even! Both come into this untethered from Mariah May, the star their first match revolved around. Shirakawa has more natural charisma in one hair follicle than most people do in their entire being while Storm remains a true one-of-one performer in pro wrestling.

Yet, like so many other matches on the card, this remains in service of the future. The real juice comes later in the form of the biggest women’s match AEW can make: Toni Storm vs Mercedes Mone at All In Texas.

Prediction: Toni Storm retains

Kenny Omega, Swerve Strickland, The Opps & Willow Nightingale vs. The Death Riders & The Young Bucks in an Anarchy in the Arena match

Blood & Guts is my preferred brand of AEW stipulation. Anarchy In The Arena doesn’t scratch the itch. Maybe there’s too much, you know, anarchy. Maybe it’s the music playing during the match. Likely, it’s the combination of the two. It is also a stipulation for stipulation’s sake. Matches like this and Blood & Guts are always better served when there’s a strong story to support them.

I’m not quite sure this works in that regard. The individual components are delicious. Strickland, Omega, the Bucks, Moxley. All of them are proven top dogs and top draws. Yet the sum is less than its parts. This should feel like the life of AEW is on the line but it doesn’t, and much of that lies at the feet of The Death Riders. They no longer inspire fear, merely resignation. We don’t want them to be conquered; we want them to go away.   

The newly re-signed Nightingale is everything the company should be built around moving forward. She is the now and future ace that can do anything and everything. Again and again, she’s proven herself up for any challenge. Every bar easily cleared. She has the charisma, the skill, and the connection to reach the highest levels of wrestling. AEW cannot let this opportunity slip away like they did with Garcia. She’s here for the long haul, and it’s long been time for them to commit to her the way she committed to them. She should get the pin in this match and, honestly, she should pin Moxley.

Prediction: Willow, Omega, Swerve and The Opps