AEW Double or Nothing preview & predictions: The road to All In begins

Editor’s Note: The following is an opinion based preview that reflects the views of the author and not our website.

AEW celebrates its fifth anniversary this weekend: five years since the little company that could ran the first Double or Nothing in Las Vegas.

A lot has changed in AEW since then, but our very own Bryan Alvarez raised an interesting question about change, or the lack of it, in AEW. He said if you take the belts away, everyone is exactly where they were a year ago. It’s an interesting idea, but one that I don’t necessarily agree with. You can’t just remove the belts because they are foundational to pro wrestling. What is wrestling without them? Exhibitions are fun, but an audience needs stakes to get invested. Titles are something to reach for. They represent growth, progress, triumphs — they make everything matter.

But how much growth has happened over the past year? Bryan Danielson is still losing every big match while remaining the best wrestler alive. He is who he’s always been. In his case, that’s more than enough, but what about others? How much different are performers like Toni Storm, Hook, House of Black, etc? Are they in better places now? Have they developed their characters? I’m not saying I agree with Bryan, but it’s an interesting thought exercise for a number of the wrestlers.

It does seem like change is coming for AEW as a whole. Whether it’s soon-to-be returning stars like MJF and Adam Cole, a new media rights deal, or even the expiration of wrestler contracts, AEW will be much different come the fall. 

Sunday’s Double or Nothing (8 PM Eastern on PPV) also kicks off the road to All In. This card largely looks fine which usually means AEW is in for something special. The more milquetoast the card appears, the better the wrestling usually is.  With two big matches — the in-ring debut of Mercedes Mone and the symphonic violence of Anarchy In The Arena — there is enough to capture the audience’s attention. It does feel a lot like the Roadblock cards WWE used to run leading up to WrestleMania which were fine cards, but designed to get us to the big show, not create anything truly memorable.

Sunday will wrap up some of the smaller stories and set up the major storylines that lead into what is AEW’s version of WrestleMania. Let’s preview the card with an eye toward where some of the bigger players may wind up at All In.

Please note these are all as of Saturday prior to Collision.

FTW Champion Chris Jericho defends against Hook and Katsuyori Shibata in a three-way

Do not delude yourself, dear readers, into thinking Jericho has done it again. Do not gaslight yourself into saying, “Lol, wow he really got another gimmick over.” This is simply a carnie continuing to carnie in the hopes that people forget, well, everything. I will begrudgingly admit to cracking a smirk at times, but this man is either on TV or has segments dedicated to his storyline multiple times a week. And to what end? The FTW title carries no weight and means nothing in the ecosystem of AEW. It means even less around the waist of Jericho.

A saving grace is the potential future pairing of Hook and Shibata. If they want to present Hook as a shoot-tough guy, who better for him to be paired with than Shibata? They even teased something with Samoa Joe a week ago and the trio of Joe, Hook, and Shibata is something that would have my attention.

Prediction: Jericho retains, sadly

AEW Trios Champions The Bang Bang Gang (Jay White & The Gunns) defend against Death Triangle (Pac, Rey Fenix & Penta El Zero Miedo)

As much as I love the pieces of Death Triangle together and as individuals, it’s important to remain objective. Putting the belts on them presents a real risk. Whenever they are healthy, they are as good as anyone on the roster. But the only consistent thing about them is they are consistently injured. PAC has spent more time off-screen than on and Fenix is always somewhere between banged up and fully on the shelf. It’s a shame since both are top in-ring performers deserving of spots around the upper mid-card.

The Bang Bang Gang remains entertaining. A motivated Jay White can be a force. I have no idea what to think about the Gunns, other than they make me smile and sometimes, that’s more than enough. They just unified these titles, losing them so soon would be silly.

Prediction: Gunns up

Orange Cassidy vs. Trent Beretta

I like that this is going against the traditional booking beats and is a straight wrestling match as opposed to something with a wild stipulation. This is a deeply personal feud that has already seen a shady finish. Typical logic would call for a stipulation like no DQ or falls count anywhere. That might still be where this winds up, but for now, a straight wrestling match between these two should be worth watching. Beretta seems invigorated as a heel and Cassidy under the big lights never disappoints.

I don’t think this sets up anything meaningful for All In as this feud is too close to the finish line for that. Look for Don Callis to get involved and cost Cassidy, positioning them to finish a trilogy of matches at Forbidden Door.

Prediction: Beretta

IWGP World Champion Jon Moxley vs. Konosuke Takeshita in a non-title match

Now this is the good stuff as the true ace of AEW is going up against someone who should be in that category. A little over a year ago, Takeshita beat Kenny Omega in what should have been the official launching of the SS Konosuke on its maiden voyage to the moon. Instead, it’s been nothing but frustration. The inconsistent booking that plagues so much of AEW is exemplified in him. Wrestlers like him are rare. This is an explosive, all-world athlete with size right out of central casting who wrestles a gorgeous style.

So what on Earth are they waiting for? What am I missing here and why do I ask this question every few months? Maybe this is the match where they realize what they have. You can get shown the light in the strangest of places. All you have to do is look at it right. 

This could very easily be the match of the night. Moxley continues to be the most bankable thing in pro wrestling. Pair him with a freak talent like Takeshita and we could see a hard-hitting firework fest. Give these two a tight 15 and let them pull out all the stops. 

Prediction: Moxley

AEW International Champion Roderick Strong defends against Will Ospreay

This is going to be big and this is going to be brutal. The backstage confrontation two weeks ago was the best of both men. Ospreay toned down the manic shouting and bruv-ing and spoke with determined conviction. Strong completely cut out the jokes and played the arrogant bully. This is exactly how both should be used: two killers in the ring that aren’t tasked with cutting long, meandering promos. Moderation is what I’m saying. Moderation, though, is not what this match will contain. This will be a match of largess with two guys who work in all caps.

Bombs will be thrown, backs will be broken, and the crowd will wince. Neither wrestler has much regard for bodies, either their own or their opponents. Strong has never shied away from brutalizing whoever he’s in the ring with. That, combined with Ospreay’s evolution from a flippy little dude to a heavy-handed monster means this will be physical. Anarchy in the Arena will have more spots and the match people remember, but this match will leave its own mark. In search of critical acclaim, Ospreay tends to be far too giving in his matches. Everyone leaves looking strong even at the expense of our belief and his well-being. Strong doesn’t need help looking strong, but if Ospreay is going to give, rest assured he will take.

Ospreay is already the number one babyface in the company. He’s taking the International title and pointing his eyes directly at Swerve Strickland and the main event of Wembley Stadium.

Prediction: Will Ospreay wins the title

TNT Champion Adam Copeland defends against Malakai Black in a barbed wire steel cage match

God bless Copeland, a pure madman, for being able to do the work he’s always wanted to do so late in his career. He’s putting everything he has into everything he does and it’s beautiful to see. Stars like this should not disappear tinily. Too often, they blink out of existence rather than departing with the bombast and fanfare they deserve; just look at the end of Kurt Angle’s in-ring career. As long as Cope stays away from what didn’t work with his WWE matches and keeps lacing up his working boots, I’m going to keep being entertained.

The eternal question will finally be answered this weekend: will Big Mal Black eat a solo pin? Do you know the last time he lost a singles match was in October of 2021? 2021! To Cody Rhodes! Look, I don’t care if the rumors of him being unwilling to lose are true or not. Conjecture is fun! On one hand, there’s Bryan Danielson who seems to relish losing. On the other, there’s a midcard act refusing to do what the best wrestler in the world does time and time again. I have no choice but to respect both it and his commitment to the bit. 

Prediction: Cope retains

AEW Women’s World Champion Toni Storm defends Serena Deeb

There’s a great scene in the most recent season of Curb Your Enthusiasm where Larry David gets coffee that’s cold. To prove his point, he sticks his nose into the coffee. The coffee is, in fact, cold. David could stick his nose into the coffee cup of this match and it would come out frozen. There is nothing here as it’s as empty as a bird’s nest in December.

Deeb will come out, wave her flag, try to fire up the crowd, and will be met with tepid, polite applause. People will briefly look up from their phones. This is through no fault of her own. She’s going against her natural alignment; a babyface, she is certainly not. She never should be. She doesn’t have the presence for it, and deciding to cast her in that role baffles me. When she cut the sadly familiar promo one cuts when they back from a career-threatening injury, she was met with silence. The people popped more to Storm saying a mild curse than someone talking about getting their livelihood back.

What makes this even more confusing is that the people cheer for Storm. As exhausting as this gimmick is, it’s still something the audience is behind. Why not lean into that? Why force Deeb as a babyface when you already have one? Alignments change at the drop of a hat in wrestling, so there’s no reason we need to keep Storm a heel for the long-rumored program with Mariah May to start. That feud isn’t dependent on alignment anyway; it depends on the performers who both seem up for it.

“Timeless” Toni wins easily on Sunday and positions herself for something big at All In, either with May or hopefully, a returning Jamie Hayter.

Prediction: It’s still Toni Time

TBS Champion Willow Nightingale defends against Mercedes Mone

You’d think Nightingale is the clear star here if you knew nothing about these two. From moment one, she has outclassed Mone on the microphone. It wasn’t until the last few weeks when Mone started leaning into her natural heel persona that things began to click. She’s so much more magnetic and natural when she’s being a smarmy, self-absorbed star instead of someone just happy to be wrestling. She desperately needs a good performance on Sunday to remind people that she is in the top echelon of bell-to-bell wrestlers, regardless of gender.

The brave move would be to have Nightingale win clean and emphatically, immediately making a new top star. The more realistic outcome is anything but that. I can see Kris Statlander and Stokely Hathaway getting involved to cost her the title and give her something natural to move to next. It’s too bad she’ll lose her title so soon, but unfortunately, that’s showbiz.

Prediction: Mercedes wins the title

The Elite (Matthew and Nicholas Jackson, Kazuchika Okada & Jack Perry) vs. FTR, Bryan Danielson & Darby Allin in an Anarchy in the Arena match

Please don’t die Darby Allin and please don’t paralyze yourself Bryan Danielson.

Allin has always been a certifiable maniac, but this is a whole ‘nother level. While recovering from a broken foot – one that has likely not fully healed – everyone’s favorite crash test dummy got hit by a bus and broke his nose. The only thing one can do in this situation is wrestle in a massive gimmick match that is always full of blood and bumps. Allin and I are not the same and I prefer it that way.

Anarchy in The Arena, Blood and Guts, and Stadium Stampede matches always deliver. They are as sure as things get. AEW prioritizes these spectacle matches to leave lasting moments and memories, and this won’t be any different. The individual talents in this match are staggering: the two best tag teams of the modern era, the best big match performer of the modern era, the greatest wrestler of all time, and the most maniacal bumper of the last few years. This is about to be all sorts of fun. 

The Elite story is just getting going, so a loss to a thrown-together group of wrestlers just isn’t going to cut it. There’s a longer game at play here, one that likely includes the return of Hangman Page. They need to keep the momentum going.

Prediction: The Elite

AEW World Champion Swerve Strickland defends against Christian Cage

This is a perfect first feud for the champion version of Strickland as no one gets quick heat like Cage. He can dial a program up to eleven in one promo, one backstage segment, or even one off-handed comment. The dude is that good. The level he is operating on as a heel is unparalleled in the current wrestling climate. No one is doing the level of work he is with the number of people he is working with. Other signings have received more fanfare and acclaim, but since he debuted in AEW two years ago, no one has been better than Christian, aka the real MVP of AEW.

It’s been refreshing to see that Strickland hasn’t changed who he is since winning the title. What got him to the top should be close to what keeps him there. He didn’t rise up by being a cookie-cutter wrestling character. He rose because of his unique gifts and presentation. He’s embraced the shades of gray that make him interesting. A pure babyface promo from Strickland would ring hollow, full of empty words and sentiment. He’s at his best when he is a seething force unique unto himself. 

This program has been solid with nothing groundbreaking and nothing we’re probably going to remember in a few weeks. That does not make it any less necessary. Strickland beating an established legend like Cage in his first real title defense adds weight to his reign. He’ll need that weight because if Ospreay is coming for the gold at All In, the champion needs as many reps as he can get against greatness.

Prediction: Swerve retains