AEW Double or Nothing preview & predictions: All pillars, no killers

The most important stretch in AEW’s history kicks off this Sunday.

The next few months will see the debut of the new Collision show, the imminent return of CM Punk, Forbidden Door II, and the biggest show they’ve ever run with All In at Wembley Stadium. The little promotion that could is suddenly the massive promotion that did. 

This is a company with a tremendous reach and a big financial commitment from its television partners. Come June, there will be at least seven hours of AEW programming every week. That doesn’t even count Ring of Honor, AEW All Access, or anything else that makes its way to television. Now that they’re enormous — something a company that could wind up nearly filling Wembley Stadium certainly is — the expectations increase exponentially. It’s up to them to build on this momentum and use the extra resources to take the company to the next level. The roster is ready. There’s enough talent to make all of this work and do something historic. The future of AEW has never been brighter.

The future is limitless, but this card is just…fine? It’s probably the most skippable AEW show in recent memory. It’s a card designed to bridge the gap until the next big thing — the debut of Collision — before AEW fully opens up the engines leading into a summer full of tentpole events. I doubt this will reach the heights of some previous shows (though AEW has shocked me before), but I don’t think anyone is going to be asking for their money back either. 

Let’s preview Sunday’s Double or Nothing (7:30 PM Eastern pre-show/8 PM Eastern main card on PPV) and see what shakes out.

Pre-show: The Firm (Ethan Page & The Gunns) vs. Hook & The Hardys for the rights to Page’s contract

There are two wolves in every man. The one that knows a nine-match PPV on the Sunday of Memorial Day weekend is a bad idea, and the one that books this card anyway. Wasn’t there just a cinematic match with all these people? Don’t those usually mean the end of feuds? I am confused and I am tired.

I do love some of the individual pieces here. Austin & Colten Gunn had the hardest entrance ever in AEW when they came out to 50 Cent’s “Many Men” Page has been entertaining and under-appreciated for almost as long as I’ve watched wrestling. And now Hook has been sent to replace the injured Isiah Kassidy/Brother Zay. He is very entertaining and is a future star, but Hook is Hook and the people sure do love El Diablo Guapo.

Let’s keep this one short: Hook comes out, gets his stuff in, the Hardys fire up the nostalgia machine, and the crowd gets sent home happy.

Prediction: Hook & the Hardys

Adam Cole vs. Chris Jericho in an unsanctioned match

This is a great way for Cole to make his return to pay-per-view, and the usual criticism of Jericho inserting himself to steal someone’s shine is misguided here. The number one bay bay is coming back from a frighteningly serious series of concussions, and someone like Jericho who doesn’t wrestle the standard AEW super indie style is as safe and stable as an opponent gets. 

An unsanctioned match might seem scary for someone coming off of brain injury, but these types of matches are typically so well choreographed and planned that there should be significantly less risk.

Babyface Adam Cole sure is something. The crowd has always loved him, and now they get to show him just how deep that love is. If he’s next up for MJF, count me as excited. Two of the best talkers in the company getting a chance to build a program should be something else. MJF really needs someone who can hang with him on the mic after his Herculean efforts carrying the wet paper bag that is the four pillars feud by his lonesome. Can’t wait.

Prediction: Adam Cole

The Elite (The Young Bucks, Kenny Omega & Hangman Page) vs. Blackpool Combat Club (Wheeler Yuta, Claudio Castagnoli, Jon Moxley & Bryan Danielson) in an Anarchy in the Arena match

“Higher levels, bigger devils.” 

Yet another all-time line from the god Jon Moxley and an appropriately biblical one for what promises to be a divine affair. The first Anarchy in the Arena bout was one of the best matches in AEW history as the visuals and moments will be used in video packages long after the current generation of AEW has hung up their boots. This, along with Blood and Guts, are their signature matches — their versions of Hell In A Cell and TLC. 

These are matches that get busted out for the big stars with the big stakes, and come with appropriately massive expectations. If there was ever a group that can live up to those expectations, it’s these eight cats.

Your mileage may vary on the winding, exhausting tale of The Elite and their will they/won’t they friendship (relationship? lovership?). And I get it. It’s a lot! It’s overwrought and hackneyed at times, but man does the live crowd want it. They just eat it up. The building came apart when Page’s music hit a couple of weeks ago. The reunion of four of the people responsible for the existence of the company is objectively a big deal, regardless of whether or not it’s a bit tiresome.

At times, and perhaps too often, The Elite are meta caricatures of wrestling. The Blackpool Combat Club is the other side of that. Gritty, real-ass wrestlers. No wink-wink behind the curtain stuff. Just four dudes that are going to wallop you, stretch you, and make you regret stepping in the ring with them. All of them have their roles and play them perfectly, none more so than Danielson who remains a flawless pro wrestler. This is him at his best. He’s a blessing every second he’s on-screen, a beacon that lights the edges of the world.

Prediction: Blackpool Combat Club

Orange Cassidy defends the AEW International title in a 21-man Blackjack battle royal

Cassidy’s run with the International Championship is the best title reign in AEW history. Week after week, he’s had good to great matches with every type of wrestler you can imagine. Play the underdog against Big Bill? Done. Match Bandido move for move and spot for spot? No problem. Cassidy is so far beyond the “just a gimmick” moniker that he never deserved. He made this title matter and made it the workhorse title that it desperately needed to be.

Having mid-card titles like this are so important. They, obviously, add needed stakes to both one-off matches and feuds, but also serve to elevate the World title. The big prize should not be defended on TV regularly and should be saved for moments that truly deserve the highest stakes. When it is defended, it should feel like the proper spectacle it is.

As good as Cassidy has been, this feels like a safe way to take the title off him. Since winning the title in early October, Cassidy has wrestled in over 40 matches with most of them incredibly physical. It’s easy to think that his gimmick means he’s taking it easy, but he absolutely is not. Even standard AEW matches are taxing and grueling. Doing that weekly for seven months takes a huge toll. It’s time for a much-deserved break for the hardest-working man in AEW.

Prediction: Not Orange Cassidy

AEW Women’s Champion Jamie Hayter defends against Toni Storm

Since January, Hayter has wrestled in three singles matches which seems low for the top woman in the company. Sure, there were some visa issues that complicated things, but only three matches for a woman this good and that the crowd can’t get enough of is far, far too few. 

Too often, she’s been getting second or even third billing as the champion. Too often, she’s standing beside Britt Baker during promos without saying much. Too often, the story of The Outcasts doing nothing of substance gets more TV time than the woman who should be the face of the division. And that’s just it: Jamie Hayter has never been presented as the true face of the division. She’s an afterthought in everyone else’s stories and doesn’t have her own. A star this bright should never be dimmed this much.

Hayter’s injury makes this whole situation murkier. If she’s going to miss time, it makes all the sense in the world to put the title on Storm. It gives The Outcasts something to do outside of just spray painting everyone and loving green. It would give time for Hayter rest up for a huge return at All In later this summer.

Prediction: Toni Storm wins the title

TNT Champion Wardlow defends against Christian Cage in a ladder match

What a difference a year makes. Coming out of last year’s Double or Nothing, Wardlow was it, baby. No one was hotter than the War Daddy. Now? He’s a dryer on the fluff setting. Lukewarm would be giving him too much credit. As is often the case, it’s through no fault of his own. The inconsistent booking and constant devaluing of the TNT title have created this perfect cocktail of mediocrity and mild reactions.

Cage is probably the best pure, old-school heel in AEW. (Yes, this includes MJF because people want to like him.) No one wants to like Cage and no one even wants to tolerate him. He knows exactly how to get the reactions he wants. Like an expert harpist, he plucks the right strings at the exact right times. He knows which notes will resonate the most, and plays them at just the right tempo. From his words to his expertly curated selection of turtlenecks and jackets, he’s exactly the right person to start helping Wardlow get his momentum back and become someone who matters in AEW.

Prediction: Wardlow retains

TBS Champion Jade Cargill defends against Taya Valkyrie

A question that’s been rolling around in my ever-smoothing brain: is Cargill’s undefeated streak losing its luster? She still feels unstoppable, but it’s starting to feel routine. Never in my life could I imagine a world where a spectacle like Cargill feels like a regular wrestler. She hasn’t done anything meaningful since her program with Red Velvet in January. Prior to that, there was a bit of something with Willow Nightingale and Athena, but that was a year ago. 

Two meaningful programs in a calendar year aren’t enough. A winning streak alone isn’t enough to be compelling, especially if the audience doesn’t believe she can actually lose. The presentation is still top shelf, but everything else is not. Sooner or later, there needs to be something for the audience to invest in or else it’s just empty calories.

There is no reason for squash matches this far into an undefeated streak. If this holding pattern is a result of waiting for Kris Stalander to come back healthy, that is just as inexcusable. AEW has never struck me as a place allergic to creative risks, so why not take the chance to make someone in one night? Whoever breaks Jade’s streak is made. Are there really no other in-house options to do just that?

If you squint, you can convince yourself there’s a story here, but certainly not enough to warrant the end of a winning streak. Their first match was nothing special, or even good, but it at least planted the seeds for an actual program with backstory. No shade meant to Valkyrie but her being the one to end the winning streak would be a fantastic disappointment.

Prediction: Jade Cargill retains

AEW Tag Team Champions FTR defend against Jeff Jarrett & Jay Lethal with Mark Briscoe as guest referee

Once again, and as always, god bless Jeff Jarrett. This 55-year-old carnie still has the best facials in all of wrestling. Whenever he hits a big move or gets away with something, he looks like a four-year-old that found a really cool bug at the park that they can’t wait to show you. And, of course, he found a way to work his wife (Karen Jarrett) into this angle. He’s been playing the same hits for years, and they still sound as good as ever. He’s so close to assembling the Jeff Jarrett set of infinity rings. Never change, Jeff. Never grow old.

This match probably won’t be a classic like we’ve come to expect from big FTR matches, but it should be a beautiful, overwrought mess. Ref bumps, interference galore, maybe a missed three count or two, you name it. But there will not be a title change. At least not as part of a program that is best suited for the 9:00 hour of Dynamite, not a pay-per-view.

Prediction: FTR retains

AEW World Champion MJF defends against Sammy Guevara, “Jungle Boy” Jack Perry and Darby Allin in a four-way

By orders of magnitude, this is the weakest main event in AEW PPV history. MJF has done everything he could to create something compelling here, but ultimately the other three “pillars” just aren’t up to the task. The more we put the pillars under a microscope, the more they wilt. The only one that has truly flourished and become exactly what he claims to be is MJF. The generational talent label has never been more apt or more deserved. He’s the only true top of the card talent. The rest are just lost in his gravity — completely overshadowed and outclassed by someone who is superior in every way.

The worst thing for Sammy, Darby, and Jungle Jack was the pillars moniker. It came out of nowhere and was immediately met with mockery. These guys are the future foundation of the company? These are the guys being spoken of in the same breath as the four pillars of Heaven? It was a bold statement that did nothing for any of them, much like this feud hasn’t. It’s only served as a reminder of what they aren’t.

They have been running the same promos for a month now. I need this, I love this, I gave up everything for this, etc. If that’s all there is to say, there really isn’t anything to say. Rinse and repeat babyface promos aren’t enough. Generic ‘this is all I’ve dreamed about’ promos aren’t enough. This has been so flat that I can’t help but wonder if there’s a post-match angle planned, maybe something big to close the show and propel AEW full speed ahead towards Collision.

Prediction: MJF retains