AEW All Out preview & predictions: Burning down the house

The following is an opinion-based preview and reflects that of the author, not of the website.

Over the last six months, I have become a martini guy. Partially out of an unrealistic and romanticized idea of what the cocktail is, and partially because I can only have two drinks at a time, so I better make them count.

A good martini is alert. It makes you sit up a little straighter and open your eyes a bit wider. It is a polite nudge asking for your attention. The first sip reminds you that you are, in fact, alive. Now I ask you, my beautiful readers, if Saturday’s AEW All Out (8 PM EST on various PPV providers) asks for your attention.

More importantly, does it make you feel alive? We watch wrestling to feel something, to be moved by the indomitable physical spirit of the performers. There are a couple of matches that make me feel something and give me a real tingle in my plums. The rest? Color me intrigued. That’s all I ever ask for.

I was down on last year’s All Out and it wound up blowing me away. If All In brings the pageantry, maybe this is the show Tony Khan books for the sickos. Let’s run through some previews & predictions for Saturday’s show from the NOW Arena in Chicago.

MJF vs. Daniel Garcia

After doing a career-threatening neck injury spot, Garcia returned to a huge pop at All In. The dancing is gone and Red Death is back. Garcia is an example of someone AEW seems to have waffled on. Much like Konosuke Takeshita, he has been handed a number of frustrating starts and stops. Maybe some of that is contract-related, maybe it’s a lack of foresight. It’s likely a bit of both. Regardless, the fans remain invested in his success and now is the time to prove their faith founded. If not now, when? 

All I could do was shake my head when MJF popped up on the Dynamite after All In and was no worse for wear. While others have sold the impact of the Tiger Driver for weeks, everyone’s favorite overbearing superhero had other ideas. Armed with only kinesiology tape on his neck and conviction in his heart, MJF showed up to rip off yet another promo rather than at least pretending to sell the move. Alas, we soldier on in the hopes he does the right thing on Saturday.

I would have liked a longer build, but the All In/All Out schedule does not allow for that. Garcia goes over nonetheless

Prediction: Garcia

AEW International Champion Will Ospreay defends against PAC

I love PAC; he will go down as a big ‘what could have been.’ What if AEW existed a few years earlier? What if WWE cared more about wrestling talent than how a person looked? What if he could dodge the injury bug just a teensy bit more? In my best Bill Simmons impression, ‘You know, Russillo, there’s a real sliding doors situation with this guy PAC! People forget he beat Kenny Omega! If a few things broke right, I really think we’re talking about a pantheon level wrestler.’

Terrible impressions aside, there’s an alternate future where he’s had far more acclaim, far more time on television, and far, far more gold.

While PAC brings love out of me, Ospreay still brings some hesitation. I remain astonished at what he is physically capable of in the ring. Often, it veers too much into caricature, but, my lord, there is nothing he can’t do. He is a physical marvel. The Ospreay matches I enjoy have a grounding element or him working against something. His matches against Bryan Danielson and Lance Archer immediately come to mind. They tempered his worst instincts as a performer and gave the matches structure. Ospreay’s worst instincts are brought out when he’s in the ring with someone who can match his athletic gifts. He can lean too far into self-indulgence in an attempt to make a moment. What gives me hope, though, is that PAC does not suffer for melodrama. He does not allow for a lightness of being. Something special is in the realistic range of outcomes for this, and consider me interested.

Prediction: Ospreay retains

TBS Champion Mercedes Mone defends against Hikaru Shida

The Star vs The Ace. A match where, hopefully, Mone can show everyone in AEW what she’s truly capable of in the ring. Her match with Britt Baker at All In was disappointing. I’m loathe to use this term after just deriding Ospreay for seeking this out, but she lacks that “signature moment” in AEW. I’m not worried, I’m not shook, I’m just saying that it’s time to do something that stays in our brains for more than an hour. So far, her biggest moment has been her debut and while that is a high bar to clear, nothing in the ring has been special. These two wrestled back in August and it was perfectly fine. This weekend, I’m hoping for something that sings.

If Mercedes is looking for someone to shine with, few are better to do that with than Shida. She’s proven she can have a good match with anyone and in any type of match. Mercedes is someone who is tempted to overact: exaggerating her movements, stretching the moments like taffy. Shida is someone who can both play into that and punish it. She’ll let her wrestle the match she wants and be the perfect foil. It’s been too long since she had a big spot on a major show. It’s great to see her back, albeit certainly in a losing effort.

Prediction: Mone retains

Willow Nightingale vs. Kris Statlander (w/ Stokely Hathaway) in a Chicago street fight

This originally was set to be for Nightingale’s CMLL Women’s title, but that was changed this week.

There has been tremendous content from these three over the past few months which is unsurprising considering the individual talents involved. I’ve been waiting for years for Hathaway to get a chance to be his special brand of funny on TV. Equal parts irreverent and bitingly smart, he is such a unique performer. His previous failings were not through any fault of his own, merely the wrong circumstances. The stars are aligned now, and seeing him flourish is wonderful.

He is matched in performance by both Nightingale and Statlander. Not much more needs to be said about Willow. She’s well on her way toward being the biggest babyface on the female side of the roster. Her opportunities to grow and develop her character in meaningful programs outside of the main event will pay off in spades. Statlander is a delight in the antagonist role. Like Big Stoke, she has a brand of humor that is entirely her own and entirely weird. The pairing has allowed her to lean into that, and has brought the best out of both of them. This should continue for a long, long time.

Plunder matches are always fun and Willow especially shines in them.

Prediction: Willow wins

AEW Tag Team Champions The Young Bucks defend against Claudio Castagnoli & Wheeler Yuta

Here are five quick observations about this match since it was announced late on Wednesday and I am tired:

• The BCC has run its course.
• The Young Bucks are still wrestling scarecrows – empty suits masquerading as something real.
• Yuta needs a haircut.
• Castagnoli remains a freakish force of nature even at 43 years old. His hot tag in this match could bring the house down.
• There is little chance a title change is happening.

Prediction: Bucks retain

AEW Continental Champion Kazuchika Okada defends against three TBD competitors

All roads are pointing towards a Konosuke Takeshita and Okada program in the (hopefully) near future. I am trying to manage my expectations around Takeshita; I refuse to have the rug pulled out from underneath me again. If that’s the direction they go and he does the deal, he would have beaten both Okada and Kenny Omega, two of the best wrestlers of this century. The list of who has done that in marquee matchups is minuscule. It’s not like they’re fighting against the crowd to get him over either. Whenever he’s been given a sustained chance, the crowd is extremely into it. 

Regardless of who winds up in the match, an Okada victory is all but assured. 

Prediction: Okada retains

AEW World Champion Bryan Danielson defends against Jack Perry

It’s sink or swim for the former Jungle Jack. If he can’t have something approaching a memorable performance with Danielson this weekend, I’m afraid it might be Joever for the “Scapegoat.” His match at All In was encouraging, though. Beating Darby Allin in his signature coffin match certainly raised my eyebrows. An easy and apt comparison for Perry is Sammy Guevara. Both have had a ton of TV time and endless opportunities, but neither of them are anywhere near the top of the card. Neither do anything at a top level. They each cap out at “pretty good.” In 20 years they’ll just be some guys we remember on occasion, not wrestlers whose work we seek out. And pretty good isn’t nearly good enough to retire the Greatest Of All Time. 

His opponent, Danielson, is someone whose work will be sought out forever. He capped off his remarkable career with an incredible main event performance at All Out. The perfect modern wrestler got to feel the confetti fall and celebrate in the middle of the ring with his family. AEW’s treatment of legends in the twilight of their career could not be better. Giving them special moments on their terms harbors more goodwill than any match booked for the sickos ever will. Unfortunately, the sickos are going to be disappointed. With so few matches left in his full-time career, this certainly is one of them.

Prediction: Danielson retains

Hangman Page vs. Swerve Strickland in an unsanctioned steel cage match

When Swerve’s pre-tape about buying his childhood home aired early in Dynamite, I was the physical embodiment of the Jack Nicholson nodding gif. When Hangman showed up sloshing gasoline around, I was kicking my feet in the air and giggling. Then he lit the whole thing on fire and poured himself a drink.

This is why we watch this silly, perfect sport. 

Clearly, this is a main event that requires no championship stakes. AEW has done an incredible job keeping this feud top of mind even when Swerve was preoccupied with something else. It never felt overbearing, but the constant reminders — delivered through the best work of Adam Page’s career — kept this feeling fresh. Page’s level of work can’t be understated. This is a performer unrecognizable from his time as the fresh-faced AEW World champion. Imbued with new dad strength and fueled by vengeance, Page has transformed everything about his character. It’s all different from the wrestling, the manner of speaking, and even how he walks.

And it should be different! He was traumatized by Swerve Strickland. Swerve broke into his house and threatened his infant son. If a man isn’t transformed by that, of what use is he as a man? If going through that didn’t bring about change, why would we ever care about him? Up until Wednesday, he was seen as the aggressor in this feud, rather than the aggrieved. That speaks more to Swerve’s likability and Q-rating more than flaws in Page’s performance. This is a layered, deeply interesting character whose future is a source of endless fascination. There are so many ways this can go, and I can’t wait to see where.

Swerve might not be the champion, but my gosh, was he strong in defeat. There’s certainly no shame in losing to Bryan Danielson in the way that he did. He put on a main event that would not have been out of place at any All In or WrestleMania, for that matter. It may be easy to assign much of the credit to Danielson, but Swerve raised his game to its apex. He wrestled that match as much for the people in the front row as the ones in the nose bleeds. He has become a no doubt main eventer — one who elevates the quality of the programs in which he is involved just by showing up.

It seems like AEW wants this to be their forever feud. For that to happen, Page needs to get some type of a win. Swerve is bulletproof and can take the loss but if Page loses, how much further into madness can he fall?

Prediction: Page